Washington Freedom v MI New York MLC Tips: Freedom should win second title

• Freedom fair favourites for the win

• MINY 'shouldn't be there'

• Pooran-Pollard axis Freedom's main worry

• Betfair Predicts is your essential guide to England v India this summer

Washington Freedom v MI New York
Monday 14 July, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow

Washington Freedom v MI New York MLC team news

Freedom have not actually played in the play-offs. The qualifier against Texas was rained off so they have been sitting patiently for this having progressed straight to the final off the back of finishing top of the league stage.

Presumably Lockie Ferguson, who has been wrapped in cotton wool because of niggles, should be well-rested for a burst with the ball. Freedom have looked a little light on quality pace apart from Saurabh Netravalkar. They lost Ben Sears to injury and his replacement Matthew Forde to the Global Super League.

They are all about middle order power with Mark Chapman, Glenn Maxwell and Glenn Phillips options. Chapman only plays if Ferguson doesn't. Rachin Ravindra has been quiet.

Possible Freedom XI:  Owen, Ravindra, Gous, Maxwell, Phillips, Mukhtar, Pienaar, Edwards, Ferguson, Holland, Netravalkar

MI New York are somehow in the final and no-one is more surprised than Nic Pooran. "In all honesty, we haven't played good cricket, and we shouldn't have been here. But we are here."

He's not wrong. MINY have scrapped their way to the showpiece beating San Francisco Unicorns and Texas Super Kings, both of whom were better teams. Last time out against Texas it was the new and old T20 heroes who got the job done. Pooran and Pollard dovetailed perfectly to get up in the chase.

Pollard, showing he still has the power, smashed 47 from 22 to take the man of the match award.

Possible MINY XI:  Monank, De Kock, Pooran, Bracewell, Pollard, Tajinder, Kunwarjeet, Luus, Boult, Kenjige, Ugarkar

Washington Freedom v MI New York MLC pitch report

In the league stage at the Grand Prairie we were confident of big runs and would have played overs on runs and sixes. But in the play-offs following heavy rains we are not sure what to make of the track. Scores of 131 and 165 in first-innings suggest a major change in characteristic.

So why not just short, then? Well because at time it has still looked flat. Pooran and Pollard blitzed with ease and got up to 172 with six balls left. We should only really bet when we are sure. A good starting point is: don't tell me what you think is going to happen, tell me you know what is going to happen. Bet on what you know to be true. The truth with this surface is like a Trump press conference.

Forecast rain and thunderstorms are not likely to aid batsmanship. If there is a washout there doesn't appear to be a reserve day so Freedom would take the title having won the ladder.

Washington Freedom v MI New York match prediction

Pooran's analysis is spot on. MI New York have played poor cricket. They won just three games in the league stage and it could be argued they got best use of conditions in the play-offs when bowling first.

The result is 1.824/5 about Freedom getting their second title. The market is often obsessed with the MI franchise and that was certainly the case in the first half of the season. It's creeping back in now after consecutive wins.

There is a worry that Freedom have lost their rhythm having now not played for a week. Are they rusty? Has their competitive edge been blunted by endless training sessions? It could be argued that makes this a choice affair.

The weight of evidence, however, suggests Freedom should be shorter. Their last outing was a six-wicket win against MINY. They also won the previous head-to-head and have lost just twice. They are the best team in the tournament.

Washington Freedom v MI New York player bets

Prios to Texas-MINY we talked up the possibility of a lower-order big price top-bat coming in. And it was a very close run thing. Akeal Hosein, mentioned in these pages as a good option, came within a hit of taking honours with 55 from 32. Who could do something similar? 

There's no-one that stands out for MINY apart from Trent Boult at 100/1101.00 because he could bat as high as No 8. He's no Akeal but he's no mug, either.

For Freedom Jack Edwards at 22/123.00 catches the eye. He's a fair all-rounder and may be required to get late runs. Mark Adair, the Irishman, is an old favourite in these conditions on this market and is 35s. We don't expect him to play so money back if a  non-runner.

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