Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders MLC Tips: Muscle-bound Freedom have six appeal

• Knight Riders remain alarmingly poor

• Could Dallas surface be slowing up?

• Freedom one win from play-offs

• Sixes supremacy the best play

• Powell eyecatching for top bat at 17/29.50

Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders
Friday 27 June, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow

Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders MLC team news

Freedom can go within one win of confirming a play-off spot by beating LA for the second time this season. They are 4-1 so far with the one loss coming in their opening game. They have not missed Steve Smith, who was due to join for a short stint, at all.

They chased Texas' 221 with ease last time and there is a lot to like about their XI now they have found room for Glenn Phillips. Their bowling resources are so stocked - they could use nine - that they could add more batting power in the form of Mark Chapman.

Possible Freedom XI:  Owen, Ravindra, Gous, Maxwell, Phillips, Edwards, Mukhtar, Pienaar, Forde, Holland, Netravalkar

LA Knight Riders quickly put the kybosh on the idea they might have found a winning formula, losing heavily to Texas a game after they got their first win of the season over Seattle.

They do come across as a team who is here for the sun and the craic. Alex Hales best personifies this with scores so far of 5, 1, 0, 25 and 6. Dropping him for Andre Fletcher would make sense. Or they could move up Sunil Narine to open instead, finding room for another overseas in Tanveer Sangha, Spencer Johnson or Anrich Nortje, fitness/availability permitting.

Possible LAKR XI:  Narine, Chand, Kumar, Badar, Rutherford, Powell, Russell, Holder, van Shalkwyk, Johnson/Sangha/Nortje, Ali Khan

Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders MLC pitch report

Big-hitting San Francisco, who have already qualified for the play-offs, could only manage 176 against Orcas on Thursday. There were signs in the previous game when Texas posted 196 and the sixes count went through the floor that the surface was beginning to tire. It would make sense if that was the case with seven games played on it.

But with another five scheduled in the league season there is plenty of time to be absolutely sure. Even so Sportsbook's  line of under 22.5 sixes is a very tempting sell, not least because of LA's struggles with the bat. They have a run rate of just 7.4. 

Freedom are as big as 10/111.91 to hit motre sixes than LA (loser if a tie). They are averaging 16 per game compared to LA's 7.2. That's a massive gulf. 

Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders MLC match prediction

Freedom have gone under 1.705/7 for this one and it is hard to argue that should not be the case. They have already dished out a shellacking to LA earlier in the season.

Batting first, Freedom posted 203, not a huge score in the context of the tournament. But that was still to much for the fragile egos of LA (is there are more apt, catch-all sentence for life?). LA were bowled out for just 99.

Given the gulf between the teams that day and its widening ever since, it is hard to even consider a trade on LA at around the 2.407/5 mark when the market settles. We do note the regularity of bottom-feeders shocking a strong team at about this stage of a ladder season in franchise but we're not prepared to risk hard-earned profits on it. The sixes wager remains the standout option.

Washington Freedom v LA Knight Riders MLC player bets

We know that Rovman Powell has a top-bat win in him so the 17/29.50 with Sportsbook that it is this game for LAKR has some appeal. Andre Russell is 14s but we may wait for slower surfaces. For Freedom Phillips is a go-to option but we were hoping for a bit better than 9/25.50 (only by half a point) given that he's at No 5.

With the ball, there's still no win for Saurabh Netravalkar for top Freedom bowler at 10/34.33, which is a surprise historically. But his form has been off. He has only three wickets in the five games so we would want to see an uptick again before considering a play.

Now read the rest of our cricket tips here!