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Texas may be odds-against gamble
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Big runs look unlikely at Lauderhill
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Race for top-two spot is on
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Lower-order hitters to the fore
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Evidence sixes line too high
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Texas Super Kings v MI Mew York
Monday 30 June, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC team news
Texas Super Kings handed MINY a beating last time out to make it two wins on the spin and make sure of a play-off place. They will be eyeing catching Freedom in the race for the top two so this is a crucial game.
Faf Du Plessis hit his second century of the tournament while there were contributions with the bat from Donovan Ferriera and from the ball with Akeal Hosein. The balance is looking good now. Pairing Akeal with Noor Ahmad could be a masterstroke.
Possible Texas XI: Smit Patel, Du Plessis, Mukkamalla, Stoinis, Ranjane, Ferreira, Savage, Akeal, Noor, Burger, Zia-ul-haq
Washington Freedom have won six in a row, not looking back since their opening-day defeat by San Francisco. And it was the previously unbeaten Unicorns they took the points off in their last outing to make the ladder a thrilling race to the top.
What was surprising about their success against San Fran was that it was the previously wayward bowling unit who got the job done. Reliably expensive, they got their act together and defended 170.
Possible Freedom XI: Owen, Ravindra, Gous, Edwards, Maxwell, Phillips, Pienaar, Mukhtar, Netravalkar, Aponso
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC pitch report
The tournament has moved to Lauderhill, Florida. And in game one on Wednesday Orcas-Unicorns was a low-scoring affair. The rampant Unicorns line-up could only manage 168 batting first. This is a sign of the formbook holding firm. It has not often been a runfest at the venue. In the last eight (five-year study) the RPO is 8.14. More than 180 has been busted three times and there have been no scores of more than 200.
Sportsbook have not adjusted their sixes line for the new surface. Unders 19.5 is available at 10/111.91 and we have to play given the record. There were 21 in Orcas-Unicorns thanks to Shimron Hetmyer's blitz (he hit seven) but that was only the third bust of the line in those eight. It is reasonable to think that the quote is therefore a little on the high side.
This is looking like a choice affair with an early show making Freedom marginal 1.9010/11 favourites with Texas 2.021/1. A slight cut on Freedom from here, though, and the odds may well be primed for a gamble on Texas.
It has looked all tournament that there is gap between Unicorns and Freedom and the rest. But Texas at the outset set themselves up for attritional cricket with the likes of Devon Conway before realising that it was about hitting power, bringing in Ferreira and Marcus Stoinis.
What is likeable about them here, though, is eight overs from Akeal and Noor on a potentially slower surface. And that nous of Du Plessis at the top of the order. We wouldn't be surprised if Conway came back in as Texas look to utilise that know-how on what a good score would be.
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC player bets
This could be a track, particularly later on, which slows considerably bringing in lower-order to hitters to win the top-bat market with a quickfire 30-odd. Akeal isn't a bad shout at 22s for top Texas bat in that regard, although Calvin Savage probably has more appeal higher up the order at 11s. For Freedom, Jack Edwards' floating role makes him attractive because he could tick two boxes. Either he bats at No 4 again or is lower down. He should be shorterr than 7/18.00.