Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC Tips: Fours and sixes short makes sense

• Orcas surprise play-off run

• Warner still axed

• Reduced overs possible 

• Netravalkar a fancy at 7/24.50

• Orcas may be trade option in-play

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom
Saturday 5 July, 00:00
TV: Live on Willow

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC team news

Orcas have turned their season around winning their last three and are now in the position of being a win away from booking a play-off spot with a game to spare. It is some comeback. Sacking coach Matthew Mott and dropping David Warner has had the desired impact.

The reality, though, is that Shimron Hetmyer has won each of the three with consistently brilliant batting efforts. Heinrich Klaasen's form remains in the gutter. He batted at No 6 last time. USA opener Steve Taylor came back into the side. 

Possible Orcas XI:  Taylor, Jahangir, Mayers, Raza, Hetmyer, Klaasen, Jones, Coetzee, Harmeet, Salamkheil, Desai

Freedom seemingly have a top-two finish within their grasp. A run-in of Orcas and MINY looks to be a gift if they need to win their last two to be sure. They lost a five-over thrash and splash in Lauderhill last time against Texas so won't be too perturbed by only their second defeat. 

Lockie Ferguson came in for his first game of the season, replacing spinner Amila Aponsa. There is no doubt he makes them stronger. 

Possible Freedom XI: Owen, Ravindra, Gous, Edwards, Maxwell, Phillips, Pienaar, Mukhtar, Holland, Netravalkar, Ferguson

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC pitch report

It is pretty clear that the Lauderhill surface formbook is holding up.  In game one on Wednesday Orcas-Unicorns was a low-scoring affair. The rampant Unicorns line-up could only manage 168 batting first. We can discount the five-over rain-affected slog between Texas and Washington but it was another low-scoring contest for LAKR-MINY on Friday with LA's 154 chased with 13 balls to spare. 

In the last ten now (five-year study) the RPO is 8.2. More than 180 has been busted three times and there have been no scores of more than 200. Sportsbook sixes line at 19.5 is high and the 8/111.73 unders is not short enough with it winning in seven of the nine unaffected by rain. Fours at unders 27.5 is also too high with eight wins in nine. There is also rain around with thunderstorms forecast. Fours or sixes bets would require 16 overs to be bowled in each innings. 

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC match prediction

Freedom are 1.618/13 with Orcas 2.427/5. Those are the sort of prices one would expect given the positions of the two teams in the table. But Orcas may reckon they deserve more respect after hitting on a method to win games. Even if it is just one man doing all the batting.

And on a slow surface and with weather around, they may not prove to be the worst bet in the world. Orcas would probably fancy a reduced-overs contest which would reduce the gulf in abilities. At the least they could well make this a choice affair in-play so are a trade. 

Seattle Orcas v Washington Freedom MLC player bets

The wait goes on for a Klaasen top-bat win. Blanks in every game so far Sportsbook make him a 7/24.50 chance. That's one of the highest prices this season for him but considering he was down at No 6 last time. Backing players with solid win rates who are way overdue is definitely a strategy but the odds still have to be fair to where he has been batting. Opener Josh Brown was in and then out for Orcas but the 9/25.50 may be an option particularly with weather around. We need ten overs for tops bets to stand so obviously openers have appeal. For Freedom, Saurabh Netravalkar is without a top-bowler win in a game unaffected by the weather. He is another overdue so the 7/24.50 could be an interest. 

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