Major League cricket Tips Matches 27 and 28: Get against big runs in Lauderhill

• LAKR could still qualify for play-offs

• Lauderhill surface one for unders plays

• Powell remains a potential  top bat

• Orcas return to type

• Super Kings eyeing top-two finish

LA Knight Riders v MI New York
Saturday 5 July, 20:00
TV: Live on Willow

LA Knight Riders v MI New York MLC tips

LA Knight Riders, despite just one win in eight, could still qualify for the play-offs. They would need to win their last two games and hope Seattle lose to Texas and MI New York also lose to Washington. This is the flaw of a six-team league and play-off system badly exposed. LA are shockingly bad.

Of course this makes no sense as they have established, powerful T20 players. Maybe the LA crew just don't take this thing seriously. Alex Hales has since long been jettisoned from the line-up. They've been batting Andre Russell at No 3 recently in a desperate attempt to find some impetus.

MI New York's equation is simple. Win their last two and make the top four. They beat LA last time out and they will be buoyed by Nic Pooran belatedly finding form with the bat. It is no surprise that MINY are [1/.71] for a repeat.

As usual our betting focus is on the Lauderhill surface. It is much more of a contest between bat and ball and the run gluts of Oakland and Dallas seem a distant memory. The first-innings scores in this leg (not including a five-over contest) read: 82-148-154-168.

LA getting up to bust Sportsbook's match runs line of 170.5 looks a very stiff task then. Particularly as they are an even money shot over the series with the bulk played on roads. LA's run rate for the series now stands at 8.2, which has them scraping past 160. 

For top batter options we are still keen on Rovman Powell. On this type of wicket he may need to come in to win for a late charge to early 40s. He's more than capable of that and is in the win zone. Sportsbook offer 13/27.50. 

Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings MLC tips

Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings
Sunday 6 July,00.00
TV: Live on Willow

Orcas' three-game winning streak was ended on Saturday with a horror show against Freedom. They were rolled for just 82. Perhaps problems run deeper than sacked coach Matthew Mott and the ostracised David Warner.

Some of their thinking is bonkers. They won three on the spin thanks to brilliant batting efforts from Shimron Hetmyer. So where did they bat him for this game? Number seven. Madness. Heinrich Klaasen did top-bat, though, which was frustrating because the price was mean on bat order but we knew he was overdue.

Texas are in with a shout of the top two. But they must win. Then they need Freedom to slip up to MINY. A massive win for Texas could still see them get ahead of San Francisco but that would require a loss, and a sizeable one, against LA. Texas are 1.748/11 favourites and that is the right price for this one.

This might be a game to play big-priced top bats. The surfaces are looking pretty tired and 30-odd could win it. Gerald Coetzee at 55s for Orcas perhaps? For Texas we like Akeal Hosein at the same price. We should also point out the 7/24.50 that no 50 is scored in the match. That obviously won in Orcas-Freedom.

This is also a game to revisit the famous tie trade. On more sluggish surfaces a gulf between two teams can be reduced and it may be that we get a tight, attritional affair. By backing yes to a tie from 30.029/1 to 50.049/1 (it is usually the latter), we can lay a bet when the price collapses into the teens with a close finish. It is a tried and trusted strategy.

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