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Knight Riders' MLC misery continues
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Orcas need to sharpen up
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Klaasen runs going cheap
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Texas and Freedom bristling
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Stoinis always a solid MoM chance
LA Knight Riders v Seattle Orcas
Sunday 22 June, 21.00
TV: Live on Willow
LA Knight Riders' and Seattle Orcas have not won a game between them in six this season. And they have both been poor teams for a while. Knight Riders won twice in seven last term and Orcas once. This is not a contest about who is better but who is less incompetent.
Knight Riders should be doing better with the individual talent they have. West Indies contingent Sunil Narine, Rovman Powell, Andre Russell and Jason Holder can win games on their own. But perhaps they're enjoying the lifestyle a little too much Stateside. Sherfane Rutherford could come in for a Russell, who has been desperately disappointing.
Orcas have an excuse. Donald Trump's travel ban on Afghans has hit them hard with Faz Farooqi and Gulbadin Naib still awaiting visas. Farooqi's pace has been badly missed.
On what looks like a flat batting wicket at the Grand Prairie Stadium, the natural port of call would be a runs bet. In the two games so far the batters have gone well with first-innings scores of 198 and 188. But LA and Orcas have been dreadful at batting. They both average under 7 runs per over this season, which is pathetic.
Instead of a match odds bet then, this looks a great match for the tie. It will go off at least 30.029/1. The sides are well matched, scoring runs at the same rate and conceding them, too. For a last-over finish you can lay off maybe in single figures.
We have been backing Heinrich Klaasen for top Orcas bat but were alarmed to see him at No 5 last time, a demotion. It is crazy not to give your best hitter the maximum time at the crease and in a tournament where the bowling is poor, he could do untold damage at No 3. Sportsbook make him a 16/54.20 chance. In our quest for a winner, then, the best bet may be to take overs 22.5 runs which looks very cheap indeed.
Back Heinrich Klaasen over 22.5 runs
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom
Monday 23 June, 01:00
TV: Live on Willow
Texas Super Kings v Washington Freedom MLC tips
From one end of the spectrum to the other for this MLC double header. While LA and Orcas will be stumbling and bumbling around, these two are operating at the top of the table thanks to smart and thrusting performances.
Freedom, the holders, have overcome a beating in their first game to win three straight. Texas' three-game streak was ended last time by San Francisco who have a 100% record from four.
On Sunday, Freedom held their nerve to get up in a thrilling chase against MINY. They were always well ahead of the rate but frequent wickets kept New York in the game but they squeezed home by eight wickets. Mitch Owen blasted a half-century from the opening berth.
Texas were beaten despite a 51-ball ton from our top-bat pick Faf Du Plessis. It was slightly surprising they didn't defend 198 better as they were beaten inside 17 overs. Noor Ahmad took particular punishment.
Marcus Stoinis is one to watch for man of the match prices with Sportsbook when available. He might not be bad at around the 11/26.50 mark for top Texas bat, too, given he's batting at No 4. For Freedom, Rachin Ravindra is due a big contribution and could be a cheap runs buy.
The Dallas surface looked podnerous to say the least in Orcas-LA. A hard wind to the shortest boundary didn't help the batters, either. There was much talk on comms that the surface was tacky. Given that it looked as though they would use the same pitch, total sixes at 19.5 is high. Play unders at 19.5 at 5/61.84.