International League T20 Tips Matches 17 and 18: Vipers too big to miss out on

• Vipers have won six in a row

• Knight Riders bottom of the pile

• Surprise value on runaway leaders

• Market wary of toss bias in Dubai

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders v Desert Vipers
Tuesday 16 December, 14:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders v Desert Vipers ILT20 tips

Desert Vipers have won a record six in a row and they couldn't have wished for a flakier opponent to make it seven. Knight Riders are bottom of the pile with one win in five and a net run rate of -1.2 as they continue their horror show in the tournament.

A team of individuals, Knight Riders have lost four straight after an opening win, and their batting continues to alarm.  A nine-run defeat by Dubai last time suggested a decent performance but the reality was they were reduced to 111 for seven in a chase. They were razed for 122 against MI Emirates and 103 against Dubai again.

Their best performance in the losing sequence came against Vipers. They posted 171 and got close to defending, taking it to the last over with only two more wickets to take.

Still, it is a surprise to see Vipers priced as big as 1.8810/11 for this one, particularly as there is no toss bias at Abu Dhabi. Vipers appear to have held on to skip Lockie Ferguson for now despite him being signed up for a stint in the Big Bash.

Ferguson is due a top bowler win and it was good to see him operating at the death last time for the Vipers. He hasn't won yet this tournament and is overdue having enjoyed five wins in eight before the start of this competition. Sportsbook make him a 16/54.20 chance. 

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates
Wednesday 17 December, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates ILT20 tips

We are back in Dubai where the key betting trend is the bias for the chaser under lights. In night matches in ILT20 24 from 34 have been won by the side batting second with one tie. That's a massive bias of 71%.

The reason has often been cited as the evening dew. The ball gets wet from the grass and bowlers struggle to keep the ball dry and therefore lose control. The markets have been slow to wake up in the past but it does appear they have caught on. 

In Sharjah last night where there is also a heavy bias, the market absolutely refused to recognise Warriors' stiff first-innings total of 174 against Gulf Giants with the defenders as big as 2.767/4 at the break. Warriors won the game.

For this contest, Dubai Capitals are priced on an early show at 2.1011/10. Ordinarily that would drift because MI are often well-fancied on the match odds. But this could be the bias in action again with the market wary of pushing the outsider too big. 

The strategy is to check in first-innings whether the market is looking ahead to the second. Early on it's probable impact may be parked slightly so anything close to a choice affair would make the team batting second a play. 

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