International League T20 Tips Matches 29 and 30: Coin toss to decide play-offs?

• Dubai Capitals eye top-two finish

• MI Emirates significantly depleted

• No Pooran, Rashid, Bairstow

• Chase bias in Dubai

• Don't miss our dedicated Ashes section HERE

Dubai Capitals v MI Emirates
Saturday 27 December, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Dubai Capitals v Mumbai Emirates  ILT20 tips

A win for Dubai Capitals will see them leapfrog Emirates and claim the all-important second spot, giving an easier route to the final. They have won their last three, perhaps fortunate to have been paired with Sharjah Warriors (twice) and Gulf Giants.

Unusually for a franchise team they have been relatively settled in terms of personnel. MI Emirates cannot say the same. They have suffered a player drain to the SAT20. Jonny Bairstow, Nic Pooran, Rashid Khan and AM Ghazanfar have all left the tournament.

It appears that Kadeem Alleyne, the West Indian all-rounder, is a replacement for Bairstow at least and could bat in the front four. Dan Mousley, the England all-rounder, has also signed.

Given the disruption in the Emirates camp, they have to be considered poor favourites at 1.855/6. There is no toss bias in Abu Dhabi with a fifty-fifty split from the ten games. It might be best to chase, though, as four of the wins for the side batting first were by one, nine, six and one runs respectively.

With Sportsbook listing Pooran as favourite for top MI Emirates bat, there is clear value. He definitely won't be playing given he was turning out in the SAT20 opener. Muhammad Waseeem, who definitely will be playing and opening the batting at that, probably gives a half point in our favour at 4s.

Gulf Giants v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders
Sunday 28 December, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Gulf Giants v Abu Dhabi Knight Riders  ILT20 tips

Thirty matches in to ILT20 and we have a strong contender for one of the worst match-odds prices of the season. Abu Dhabi Knight Riders are 1.564/7. Anyone considering betting that team at that price should probably pack up betting all together.

ADKR have won three of their nine matches and should only be such a prohibitive price to beat themselves. There's also the small matter of the toss bias. From 39 matches, 27 have been won by the team batting second in Dubai. ADKR are priced as if they have already won the flip.

Giants are far from reliable themselves but in a contest which should be a choice affair at this stage because of the importance of the toss, betting them blind and hoping it goes their way at odds-against makes sense. This is not a dead rubber with the winner making the play-offs and the loser ending their campaign.

One trend punters are waiting on is a James Vince top-bat win. Usually so reliable, Vince has not won once. He has had a 50, and a couple of mid-30s so it does feel as though a man who came into the season with a two-year ILT20 win rate of 27% is due.  

Now read our dedicated Ashes section here.