Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders IPL Tips: Back a low-scoring match at Hyderabad

• Both sides are struggling

• Ground stats point to unders bets

• Russell rates top value as death bowler

Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders
Thursday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

In keeping with the general trend throughout the tournament, the betting here is virtually tied, with Sunrisers only marginally preferred at 1.93. This match is unlikely to impact the title or play-off race, but both sides are locked in a struggle to avoid finishing bottom. It is one of the games previewed in the latest Cricket...Only Bettor.

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As we agreed on the show, it is hard to get enthusiastic about either side given what we've seen so far. Both have six points but one of KKR's wins required a miraculous five sixes off the last five balls, and they have played a game more than Sunrisers. Lose this and that wooden spoon battle would likely become KKR v Delhi.

Sunrisers not fulfilling potential

I do think Sunrisers have the better squad and greater potential, but there are still huge teething problems. They haven't worked out a settled XI or which overseas stars to prioritise. This match looks a case in a point.

We are reaching that stage of the season when pitches wear, slow and spinners come to the fore. This ground is famous for slow pitches and lower scoring (more below). Therefore it would make sense for Sunrisers to pick Adil Rashid and Akeal Hosein, or at least one of them. However to do so means dropping at least one key player.

Unthinkable as it may have been a few weeks ago, Harry Brook looks the likeliest to miss out. He's no longer opening and has only registered one good innings (albeit a superb one). Skipper Aiden Markram can't be left out. That leaves either Marco Jansen or Heinrich Klaasen, both of whom I would argue are essential to balancing the side. Jansen missed out on their win last time, against Delhi.

KKR strength is slow bowling

Kolkata also have ongoing issues accommodating their overseas stars. Sunil Narine has terrible numbers this year but seems to be undroppable. Ditto Andre Russell, and one assumes Jason Roy is now safe. That leaves Litton Das, Rahmanullah Gurbaz, David Wiese, Tim Southee and Lockie Ferguson battling for one spot. Madness.

One credit I would give KKR is they have a good slow bowling contingent. Besides Narine and whatever his short-term numbers, Varun Chakravarthy and Sayush Sharma have made positive contributions. Plus, they definitely have the batting depth to win games, and power at the death in the form of Rinku Singh, Russell and Wiese.

Back unders

Beyond Lucknow's extremely slow pitch, there have been precious few signs of scores lowering in recent days. Quite the reverse, actually. But that shouldn't deter us from having an 'unders' bet when conditions suit. There will be several from here on.

They invariably do at the Rajiv Gandhi Stadium. Over 50% of 1st Innings Runs totals over the past five years came in under 160. That trend accentuates in the second half of the season. Given the crazy scores we've seen of late, I'm confident we'll be able to lay that 160 or More line at no higher than 1.6. Looking at Sportsbook odds, perhaps much shorter.

Likewise, going 'unders' on sixes pays here. In 43% of matches, the 10 and Under exchange line lands. We can back Under 12.5 on the Sportsbook at even money.

Onto the tops markets and two bets appeal. First a quick mention of the #OddsBoost batsmen - Harry Brook and Jason Roy are both enhanced to 16/5 to top-score for Sunrisers and KKR respectively.

45/1 about Sunil Narine for KKR is simply too big. Occasionally the West Indian is promoted to opener (he has once this season already). Given KKR's late, finishing power noted above, batting him at eight or nine seems a waste. I would promote him on strict instructions to slog everything.

Finally as argued in the podcast, 9/2 about Andre Russell for Top KKR Bowler is very generous. He has the best strike rate in the side this season and has been their death bowler in recent games. Over the long-term this bet pays and in this particular case, he'll be bowling at the hardest time for batsmen, when they are taking their biggest risks.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty