Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals IPL Tips: Keep the faith with Parag

• RCB always a swerve at odds-on

• Royals are in poor form but can flip odds

• Be aware of potential pitch switch

• Parag must be close to top-bat win

• Read about Ed's in-play strategy below

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Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals
Thursday 24 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals IPL team news

RCB have been consistent in selection up until their last game when they dropped Liam Livingstone for Sherfane Rutherford. It is the right move, however, and they are a more enticing betting prospect with the West Indies all-rounder in the team.

Josh Hazlewood has had a little dip in performances as well as on occasion not getting his full quota. RCB have struggled for consistency, not winning back-to-back since game two. 

Probable RCB XI: Salt, Kohli, Padikkal (Suyash sub), Patidar, Jitesh, Shepherd, David, Krunal, Bhuv Kumar, Hazlewood, Dayal

Rajasthan Royals have confirmed that Sanju Samson will miss the contest with injury. That means 14-year-old Vaibhav Suryavanshi should retain his opening position after a 20-ball 34 against LSG.

It's four straight defeats for Royals now as the lack of depth with bat and ball really starts to bite. As great a story as it is, no franchise with squillions to spend at an auction should be in a position to have to gamble on a child.

Probable RR XI: Jaiswal, Suryavanshi (Sandeep sub), Parag, Rana, Parag, Jurel, Hetmyer, Dubey, Hasaranga, Archer, Theekshana, Deshpande

Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals IPL pitch report

The Chinnaswamy is an antidote to much of the runfest IPL venues these days. Unders 185.5 in the first dig has now won in nine of the last 17 and batting has been tricky this season. Scores of 169 and 163 batting first and then 95 off a rain-reduced 14 suggest consistency. Given that RCB batted first in all three and have lost all three they surely need to change tactics.

There is a school of thought that one of the tracks (at least) could be a road. It might be the time to use it. So we are cautious about going low on runs here. A 20-over par line at overs 191.5 suggests that we could be right, however. 

Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals match odds

The golden rule of IPL betting is to swerve RCB when odds-on. So it is a relatively simple task to put a line through them at as short as 1.758/11 for this one.

That's not to say we go full steam ahead on Royals at 2.285/4. After all, they're on a horror run and have managed to lose their last two when in positions of dominance. But there is enough in those efforts to suggest there could be some movement in-play which make Royals an attractive back-to-lay.

We'd be looking for more like 2.305/4 to hit the button and then adding 50% to the original stake on the lay for profits on both sides at 1.705/7. 

Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals IPL in-play strategy

Suryavansi looks a terrific prospect given his age but it could be difficult for a 14-year-old to maintain consistency against more experienced players. The kid has the shots and he is not afraid to use them. But the wise heads like Virat Kohli and Josh Hazlewood should be capable of outsmarting him. So we're lining up a short of his runs in-play. We may wait for a couple to go to the boundary before variations are used to outfox him so unders at around 27.5 is out involvement point.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru v Rajasthan Royals player bets

Riyan Parag remains without a win on top bat for Royals this season despite starting with one of the best two-year win rates in the tournament at the start of the season. Do we keep faith or abandon him once and for all? Well, given that his form has actually been pretty good (he has got off to more than solid starts in six innings) and Samson is absent, it could be argued he is overdue. He also has strong signs on the head-to-head against Hazlewood and Bhuv Kumar. That's no guarantee but it's much better than having a clear issue against one of the strike bowlers. Sportsbook offer 10/34.33. 

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