Royal Challengers Bangalore v Sunrisers Hyderabad IPL Tips: Title chasing RCB look too hot for strugglers

Royal Challengers Bangalore all-rounder Glenn Maxwell
Glenn Maxwell has been inspirational in RCB's title charge

On a winning run and still chasing a top-two spot, RCB are hot favourites to prevail over bottom-placed Sunrisers on Wednesday. Paul Krishnamurty expects them to deliver...

"It is hard to make a case for the outsiders, even at these inflated odds. RCB have too many runs and too much power at their disposal."

Royal Challengers Bangalore v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Wednesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

We've reached that late stage of the season where the match betting can be very one-sided, because only one of the sides has a goal to play for, beyond mere pride and professionalism. Hence RCB, who can still finish top-two are a prohibitive 1.68/13 to beat Sunrisers, who are rooted to the bottom of the table.

Chasers now enjoying a big advantage

Beware. At the time of writing, nine of the last ten matches were won by the chasing side, suggesting a significant toss bias. On one hand, totals are falling fast as pitches slow and on the other, the dew factor is coming into play.

It should nevertheless be noted that RCB were the side to break that trend, when defending 164 on Sunday against Punjab. That total was a big improvement on other recent first innings at Sharjah, and looked at least ten above par. No question, they are on a roll, winning three on the bounce. Glenn Maxwell top-scored in all three.

Sunrisers struggling to post competitive totals

Sunrisers, meanwhile, continue to disappoint. KKR restricted them to just 115 at Dubai on Sunday. Previously they failed to defend 134 against Chennai at Sharjah. I reckon they're better off with Jason Roy replacing David Warner but, shorn of Jonny Bairstow, their batting remains very light.

For that reason in particular, it is hard to make a case for the outsiders, even at these inflated odds. RCB have too many runs and too much power at their disposal.

Swerve pre-match opinions about run totals

That trend of deteriorating first innings runs hasn't actually yet been seen at today's ground. The last game at Abu Dhabi saw 189 chased down easily. Rajasthan hit 190 with 15 balls to spare, at a rate we never see at this big ground. Previously 135 was chased with an over to spare, and before that 171 was chased on the final ball.

This confirms a dilemma noted previously at Abu Dhabi. It can be a very hard ground to score on, producing sub-120 scores, but at least one of the strips is an absolute road. I recommend waiting an over or two before playing the 1st Innings Runs market, to see if the ball is coming onto the bat.

Swerve pre-match opinions about run totals

The two enhanced players on Betfair Sportsbook's Top Team Runscorer markets are Virat Kohli - to 3/1 for RCB - and Jason Roy to 10/3 for Sunrisers. Maxwell is a 7/2 chance to land a fourth win in a row for RCB.

They have been shuffling the batting order, trying out different number threes. Dan Christian got the gig last time but was out for a duck. It is notable to see him at 16/1, though, as he could get another chance.

Middle-order are the value for Sunrisers

Among Sunrisers perennially failing line-up, the top batsman value lies with the middle-order at bigger odds, as it may be won with a low total. Abhishek Sharma has batted at five in their last three matches, which suggests 12/1 is fair value. 17/1 chance Jason Holder has been in at seven but could plausibly be promoted, and has already delivered once. Dutch that pair.

Rashid Khan strikes me as poor value at 6/4 to be Top Sunrisers Wicket Taker. He hasn't won this any of the last four matches - three of which saw this market won by Holder, who is 7/2 to do so again.

Finally, try Devdutt Padikkal for Man of the Match. It is easy to envisage RCB chasing a low total and their openers doing the bulk of it, quickly.

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