Ed Hawkins is siding with the visitors in Bengaluru on Tuesday and finds bets at 6/4, 11/4 and 11/2...
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LSG can repeat Bangalore success
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Rahul and Green value
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Pitch is flat
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Read about Ed's Betfair Exchange strategy below
Royal Challengers Bangalore v Lucknow Super Giants
Tuesday 2 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Royal Challengers Bangalore v Lucknow Super Giants team news
Virat Kohli continues to find new ways to cost RCB. Striking at 140 for a half-century against Kolkata looked like a decent knock until one realises seven players scored quicker. RCB failed to defend 183 as their bowlers again proved to be hopelessly out of their depth. Surely Reece Topley replaces Alzarri Joseph?
Probable XI: Kohli, Du Plessis, Green, Maxwell, Patidar, Rawat, Karthik/Vyshak (subs), Dagra, Siraj, Topley, Dayal
KL Rahul handed over the captaincy to Nic Pooran for the win over Punjab. Punters would father rather the India player be in charge one suspects. Mayank Yadav, the pacer, produced a sensational speed show to turn the game decisively. Matt Henry is a great pick-up in place of David Willey but he may not ne needed just yet.
Possible XI: De Kock, KL Rahul/Naveen (subs), Paddikal, Pooran, Stoinis, Badoni/Hooda, Krunal, Bishnoi, Mohsin, Mayank, Siddharth
Royal Challengers Bangalore v Lucknow Super Giants pitch report
Thirteen of the last 26 at the Chinnaswamy have seen both teams hit 180. And it's six from 26 for both for 200. KKR made it look a very flat wicket indeed. Sportsbook go 6/42.50 for the former and 5/16.00 for the latter.
Bangalore are 1.834/5 with Lucknow 2.166/5. It is a pretty simple bet for this game: Lucknow at odds-against.
The Super Giants, of course, have their flaws. They are a domestic batting talent light and can be guilty of being ponderous up front historically.
But a flat Bengaluru surface should negate that and they shown themselves to be reliable in the field with the ball.
Against a profligate RCB bowling attack they have little to fear and it could be the perfect venue and opponent for them. They won here last term chasing 212.
For that reason the Exchange strategy is also straightforward. Lucknow should be capable of going well in the chase. We have to recognise that their price could be bigger at the break because of the flat nature of the surface. Backing them to get up to 220 is not unreasonable.
Alternatively if they were to bat first we would be disappointed if they didn't go into the break at around that 1.608/13 mark.
Kohli is boosted to 5/23.50 for his third top RCB bat win. Faf Du Plessis notched a half-century versus LSG at home last year but we need him boosted now at no better than 11/43.75. Cameron Green at 11/26.50 is giving up a chunk on win rate after a drift and is worth a small interest.
For Lucknow, KL Rahul is yet to win this term so playing a bat with a 30% win rate at 11/43.75 doesn't seem like a risk.