Rising Pune Supergiant v Mumbai Indians: Pune to complete their ascent

MS Dhoni and Pune should be celebrating on Sunday
MS Dhoni and Pune should be celebrating on Sunday
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Ed Hawkins previews the final in Hyderabad on Sunday and says Steve Smith's team should be afforded more respect

Recommended Bet

Back Rising Pune Supergiant [2.28] (3pts)

Rising Pune Supergiant v Mumbai Indians
Sunday 21 May, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Rising Pune Supergiant
Pune are a rarity in franchise cricket - a team that has lived up to their, albeit ridiculous, moniker. After a poor start they are indeed the rising supergiant of the tournament. They have won six of their last seven matches.

They finished second in the group and booked their passage to the final with a convincing win over Mumbai in the qualifier. And this without Ben Stokes and Imran Tahir. It would have been more than reasonable to reckon they were a busted flush after losing those two to international commitments.

But they still boast an impressive top six. Ajinkya Rahane, Rahul Tripathi, Steve Smith, Manoj Tiwary, MS Dhoni and Dan Christian are as good as anything. They do lack lower-order smarts, though.

With the ball they are unheralded and we're not too proud to say we misread them. Washington Sundar and Jaydev Unadkat have been revelations.

Mumbai Indians
It would have been harsh on Mumbai to have missed out on the showpiece after topping the group. But after their scare against Pune they got the better of the toss at Bangalore against Kolkata Knight Riders and never looked back.

They have lost key players, too. Joss Buttler has returned to England and Mitchell McClenaghan has suffered an injury. Lendl Simmons and Mitchell Johnson are far from shabby replacements.

Ambati Rayudu has replaced the out of form Ntish Rana and they consistently look for a big innings from Rohit Sharma. Kieron Pollard and the Pandya brothers have often been left to pick up the pieces.

First-innings runs
A mixed bag from Hyderabad this season. The first-innings scores (1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second, most recent first) are: 138-2/148-1/209-1/191-1/159-1/135-2/207-1. There is a historic toss bias for the chaser but it's not been repeated.

Match odds
Mumbai are [1.76] favourites with Rising Pune [2.28]. We are in no-brainer territory and it's a nice place to be for the big one. Bet Pune.

They deserve far more respect than they are being afforded. For a start, Pune have beaten Mumbai three times out of three this season. So how Mumbai are priced at some of the shortest odds all term is a mystery.

It would be churlish to list the weaknesses of Mumbai. This is the final, after all. But likewise Pune. Both outfits are much better at chasing. Both outfits have worries about their batting - Pune lower down and Mumbai up top.

So they are well matched. And if we think that then we are left with no choice to back Pune, who have momentum and confidence. And we are more than happy to do so.

Top Pune runscorer
Smith, Rahane and Tiwary have all notched half centuries against Mumbai this season. They are [3.5], [3.75] and [5.4] respectively. Dhoni, possibly his last IPL hurrah, gets a [5.0] quote. He is 13/1 with Sportsbook to be top match batsman. Smith is 11/2. Rahane is 8/15 for 14.5 runs or more with Sportsbook.

Top Mumbai Indians runscorer
Simmons, who we have a soft spot for, is [4.3] with opening partner Parthiv Patel the same. Rohit is [4.0] and he managed 58 against Pune earlier. Simmons is 17/20 with Sportsbook to score more than 19.5 runs.

Recommended Bet

Back Rising Pune Supergiant [2.28] (3pts)

Ed Hawkins P-L

2017: +14.41pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017.
*Follow Ed on Twitter @cricketbetting

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