Kolkata Knight Riders v Mumbai Indians IPL: Get set for a run-fest

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Wednesday 20 April,15:00
TV: Sky Sports

Kolkata Knight Riders v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Kolkata Knight Riders' four-game winning streak has come to a juddering halt with defeat by Bangalore. but they kept play-off hopes alive with a surprise win over Gujarat. They're not a top echelon team, though and Mumbai are much more comfortable opponents.

There will be claims they were unfortunate to have had a slow start because of not knowing their best XI. But that's no excuse. It should all have been worked out in advance.

KKR have been much more efficient on the more worn surfaces (more on that in a bit), bringing their three spinners into the game. They will hope that Mumbai's issue against spin leads to the whopping win required to steal a play-off spot. Vaibhav Arora has lost his place. Matheesha Pathirana is subbing in and out.

Possible XI: Rahane, Allen (Pathirana), Raghuvanshi, Rinku, Green, Rinku, Pandey, Narine, Roy, Varun, Dubey, Tyagi

Mumbai Indians have had a horrible campaign. They will hope to end it with good vibes and can at least return Suryalkumar Yadav to the XI following the birth of his child. Or they could just continue to be awful.

Too many big-name players have gone missing, Sky included. Jasprit Bumrah has been the worst, though. His return of three wickets (yes, THREE) in 12 games is a strike rate of 90. It is barely believable.

Rohit Sharma has been subbed out so remember performance lines are to be swerved because they won't be void. Allah Ghazanfar may get a game in that role instead of Raghu Sharma who has barely been utilised with the ball.

Possible XI: Rohit (sub Ghazanfar), Rickleton, Naman, Sky, Tilak, Jacks, Bawa, Bosch, Shardul, Chahar, Bumrah

Kolkata Knight Riders v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

Eden Gardens had not hosted a game since 19 April so there was expectation that the contest against Gujarat was going to produce runs. As it proved. Both teams boshed more than 220. We expect more of the same on what is historically a flat one anyway.

Who is more likely to get those runs, though? Well, the toss should be key in that regard. We hope KKR get to bat first. This is second versus tenth on bowling economy so Mumbai are much more likely to suffer. There's little to choose between the two on battting strike rate with sixth versus fifth.

We would expect a KKR par line of around 210.5 on the Betfair Exchange. The gamble, then, is snaffling Sportsbook's 5/61.84 that they bust 188.5 total match runs.

Kolkata Knight Riders v Mumbai Indians match prediction

Betfair Sportsbook traders rate Kolkata as 10/111.91 outsiders. The Betfair Exchange has them at even-money outsiders. We have advised turning profits on opposing Mumbai (particularly when favs) in this IPL so we see no reason to stop now.

It is, however, interesting that the obsession with the big, storied franchise and big-name players has continued until the end of a bitter season for MI. The market just cannot see past this franchise despite clear evidence that they are now a bad team.

There is still a very real chance that MI finish bottom of the lot with them level on points with LSG with both teams having two more games (LSG matched up with Royals on Tuesday).

With runs expected, KKR should at least trade as sub 1.705/7 favourites on a flat one if they bat first. But we're not averse to an even bigger odds-against option in a chase.

Kolkata Knight Riders v Gujarat Titans player bets

We are down on Mumbai but that doesn't mean we can't consider bets on a couple of their batters. it would be a surprise if one of Rohit Sharma and Sky exited the tournament without one more big score, not that they have notched anywhere near enough. Top-quality often rises to the top and pressure-free games are not likely to be a hindrance. Milestone betting is the way to go, though, because 50-odd might not be enough. Rohit to score 40 or more at 11/53.20 is good. There are no derivatives for Sky, though so a play on his runs in-play at around the 27.5 mark is an option.

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