Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Back Hardik at 11/1 as Royals try to test MI's mettle

• MI hot favourites

• Royals may have skills to trade

• Jaipur pitch a puzzler

• Keep faith with Parag

• Hardik Pandya value at 11s

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Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians
Thursday 1 May, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Rajasthan shocked Gujarat last time out thanks to the second-fastest ton ever in IPL. That it came from the blade of a 14-year-old, Vaibhav Suryvanshi, left GT needing a stiff drink. Hitherto it had been a pithy line on these pages that if the Royals (scoff) were relying on children then (scoff) something had gone badly wrong at the auction. Words are being choked on. 

Such was the brilliance of Suryvanshi's hitting that, even if fit, Sanju Samson might not get back in the team. Still, Royals would probably replace Nitish Rana. But they need to win all of their remaining games to stand any chance of qualification. 

Probable RR XI: Jaiswal, Suryavanshi, Rana, Parag, Jurel, Hetmyer, Hasaranga, Archer, Theekshana,  Sandeep (Dubey sub), Yudhvir Singh 

Mumbai Indians are building up an ominous head of steam which threatens to burn away opposition. With Jasprit Bumrah now fit and firing, even Rohit Sharma scoring runs and the middle order seemingly unhindered by the batting order changing all the time, they look strong.

Corbin Bosch, the South Africa all-rounder, got a game last time as Lucknow were despatched for a fith win in a row. 

Probable MI XI: Rohit (Bumrah sub), Rickleton, Jacks, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Naman, Bosch, Deepak, Boult, Karn Sharma

Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

What happened at Jaipur last time was truly stunning. And not just because a schoolboy blitzed an previously impressive bowling attack. On that surface, historically, it just shouldn't have been possible. Gujarat had even defied expectations to post 209. That it was chased - and by the 16th over - was trend busting.

Betting on what we know to be true is key in any sport. It was previously believed, as if the deity Himself had proclaimed it, that Jaipur was a low, sluggish surface. Unders on runs, sixes and fours was the smart play.

So now what? Well, it could be that the GT-RR game can be dismissed as a fluke and that we should lean on the longer study period that suggests a score of 170-190 is more than likely. It could be that it was the one pitch on the square that is reserved for runs. That track may be used again, which raises the possibility of a tired surface.

On balance we're probably shorting here but we have to be very careful and wait to have a look in the first few overs. 

Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians IPL match prediction

Royals are 2.6213/8. They are suddenly a very interesting prospect. Given the Super Over defeat by Delhi and subsequent losses to Lucknow and Bengaluru, when they were bossing the chases and their price had collapsed, it is arguable they should be four from four.

They also have had success at odds-against versus MI in the past and have been known as their bogey team. They have won eight of the last 13 on the head-to-head.

Maybe with confidence up and MI due a challenge we can, at best, reckon that Royals are competitive and can flip these odds for a back-to-lay.

Rajasthan Royals v Mumbai Indians IPL player bets

It's beginning to sound like a broken record with Riyan Parag. His form is strong and he is seeing the ball well. But no cigar on top bat. Having started the season with a two-year win rate of 27% he is way overdue. That record is beginning to grate and making us feel like cutting off our own ears. But even so, the voice in our head (the rational one) points out that he remains value.

Parag has a good record against MI, averaging 37 and striking in the 130s. If the 7/24.50 isn't for you, then a less stressful option is the 5/61.84 that he busts 22.5 runs, a mark he has surpassed seven times in 10 matches this term.

We are also on the meter with Hardik Pandya for top bat. He has a win in him. The 11/112.00 Sportsbook offer is an option on a surface which may not be full of runs. We'll take the risk with Jaipur here. On absolute roads we don't go with HP in case he doesn't get in. 

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