Rajasthan Royals v Gujarat Titans: Taking on Rashid and Shami

• Last year's finalists meet for the second time this season

• Jaipur not expected to be high-scoring

• W Saha may struggle to make it to 21 runs

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Friday May 5, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Rajasthan Team News

Sunday's defeat to Mumbai and the fact that CSK and LSG spit the points after their match was rained off on Wednesday means the Royals have slipped down to fourth temporarily. But let's talk about that defeat to Mumbai.

Batting first it was very much a one-man-show with Yashavi Jaiswal hitting 126, the highest individual score of the season so far. Those runs of his made up 58% of his team's total.

No-one else made more than Jos Buttler's 18.

But if they got to a big score by hook or by crook, they didn't do a particularly good job of defending it.

Yes, it was a good ground to chase on and yes Mumbai's Top 7 is full of talent and power but they should really have won.

Ravi Ashwin took two wickets for just 27 runs and was by far the pick of the bowlers, but he didn't get much in the way of support. Yuzvendra Chahal was uncharacteristically expensive and even Trent Boult went at almost 11 an over.

Worst of all was the final over bowled by Jason Holder. Defending 17 off the last over with Tim David on strike, he proceeded to bowl three consecutive full tosses. All three disappeared into the crowd. If that was down to dew, then he has to work on his skills.

If that was deliberate, he needs to work on his decision-making because those are pretty much the deliveries David would have wanted above all others.

Holder's place may come under threat from Adam Zampa after that display.

Possible XIButtler, Jaiswal, Samson, Paddikal, Hetmyer, Jurel, Holder/Zampa, Ashwin, Boult, Sharma, Chahal.

Gujarat Team news

The Titans are still top and with a game in hand on most other teams but their lead could have been even more comfortable.

It's not often teams fail to chase 131 and the Titans, with good cricket smarts and a talented batting line-up, are the sort of team you would expect to get home.

But as so often happens in these situations, they weren't sure whether to stick or twist. That alongside some excellent bowling, good fielding and use of conditions left them needing 12 off the last over after Rahul Tewatia had given them a lifeline with three sixes off the 19th over.

But it wasn't to be and the unbeaten Hardik Pandya (59) will have been left wondering if he should have pulled the trigger earlier rather than leaving so much work to be done in the final two overs.

Earlier, Mohammad Shami bowled one of the best spells of bowling ever seen in the IPL. He dismissed four of Delhi's Top 5 with figures of 4-11 and won the man-of-the-match award despite ending up on the losing side.

Despite the loss, they're likely to go with the same team with spinner Noor Ahmad now a vital cog as the fourth overseas player.

Possible XIGill, Saha, Pandya, Shankar, Manohar, Miller, Tewatia, Khan, Ahmad, Shami, Little

Pitch report

The 202 that Rajasthan posted (and defended) against CSK last week was the first-time ever that 200 was scored here.

So, it's unlikely we'll get a repeat of that in a season where we've seen all manner of first-innings scores around the country.

The only other match at Jaipur this season saw LSG post 154/7 against the Royals, a match they ended up winning by 10 runs, and a reminder that high scores at this ground are not normally easy to come by.

As proven by the fact that the average first innings score here is 158.5.

There's a toss bias favouring the chaser with 65% of matches won by the team batting second.

How to play

Despite both losing matches they should have won last time out, the theory remains these are probably the two best teams in the competition. No-one's going to go out and win 80% of their group stage matches and they can each put that bad day at the office out of the way and move on.

Home advantage has led to the Royals being marginal 1.9210/11 favourites. That sounds about right but it's worth remembering that the Titans beat them three times last season, including in the all-important final.

Rajasthan did however hit back this season, chasing 178 with four balls to spare.

That 65% win rate for the chaser suggests the toss could make all the difference. So the best option may to wait for the team batting first to get 25 or 30 on the board for no loss and look for 2.01/1 or better about the chasing team.

Gujarat Top Bowler

Mohammad Shami and Rashid Khan are both 11/4 to be Gujarat top bowler.

That's understandable. They're two of the best bowlers in the IPL and are their side's leading wicket-takers with 17 and 15 wickets.

Their strike rates are 12.3 and 14.4 respectively.

But Noor Ahmad has eight wickets in five matches (strike rate of 13.7) and Mohit Sharma has eight in six games (strike rate 13.5).

So, it's not that Shami and Kahn have outperformed Ahmad and Sharma, they've just played more games and therefore taken more wickets.

There's almost nothing in it between these four so it makes sense to split stakes between the latter two when they're pretty much twice the price; Ahmad is 5/1, Sharma is 11/2.

Shorting Saha

Wriddhiman Saha is too short. Not his height of 1.70m but rather his price of 4/5 to score over 20.5 runs in the match.

His IPL carer average is admittedly a bit higher than that at 24.55 but that's mostly based on the days when he was a proper batsman rather than a pinch-hitter.

He's averaged less than that in two of his last three seasons and passed that mark just three times in nine matches this campaign.

Add the fact he might struggle against Trent Boult early on and you've got yourself a decent bet.