Rajasthan Royals v Chennai Super Kings IPL Tips: Don't expect big runs at Jaipur

• Rajasthan come in off two losses

• Chennai bowling still a problem

• In-form Rahane remains good value

Rajasthan Royals v Chennai Super Kings
Thursday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

According to the betting, this is a rare example of a perfectly even match, with both sides trading at even money. In the reverse fixture, Rajasthan won by just three runs.

The added spice is that, as Richard Mann said in our match preview on Cricket...Only Bettor, this could well be a preview of the final. As I write, Chennai are 4.8 second favourites, closely followed by Rajasthan at 5.2.

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-- Ed Hawkins (@cricketbetting) April 25, 2023

Do Royals have enough depth?

Rajasthan come in off two defeats, both after failing to chase what seemed a very gettable target. Their weakness - lack of batting after number six - was exposed. I don't regard that as ruinous to their title chances, but it does add an element of doubt. They'll probably need to reshuffle, adding depth, as pitches wear and batting gets harder.

Depth is a weakness no Chennai side has ever been accused with. The model that made them the most consistent in IPL history demands quality finishers down to at least eight. Not that a prolific top-three have needed much help, but the likes of Moeen Ali, Ambati Rayudu and Dhoni himself are filling slots from six downwards.

Nevertheless, whilst also evidently being strong contenders, Chennai have an easily visible weakness too in their bowling. Their top wicket-taker Tushar Deshpande is going at nearly 11 per over. Matheesha Pathirana has started well enough, but the unit definitely looks light.

170 is very competitive at Jaipur

On the matter of scores lowering, this ground is a prime candidate. In 16 matches over the past five years, only three 170+ first innings totals were recorded, and none above the 200 line that seems ever more normal. This season's first match produced 154/144 on a slow, low pitch.

The runs stats over the study period reveal an extraordinary stat. 75% of 1st Innings Runs totals fall within the 150-170 range. This compares to no more than 25% implied probability based on the odds. Backing it involves a complicated, yet very useful, trading tactic.

Try this middling plan

'Middling' involves backing an unders line, then laying a higher overs line. Anything in between means both bets win, whereas if it falls outside the 'middle', the loss on one bet is partly compensated by winning the other. See this example, based on what I expect will be today's odds.

Back 150 or More 7u @ 1.292/7
Lay 170 or More 5u @ 1.84/5

If the result is below 150, I would lose two units - five profit from the 170+ lay, seven loss from the 150+ back. Likewise if 170 is reached, the 150+ back yields two units profit, but the 170+ lay loses four. But if 150-169 lands, both win, yielding seven profit in total. Thus, the bet is a 7/2 chance. Whatever the starting odds turn out, adjust the odds accordingly.

Stick with top order batsmen

Another measure Chennai's batting strength is that one of their top three has top-scored in all seven games. Devon Conway has won three times, Ruturaj Gaikwad twice and Ajinkya Rahane twice (from just five games). Rajasthan are similar, with Sanju Samson and Jos Buttler winning thrice and twice respectively, with one each for Devdutt Padikkal and Yashasvi Jaiswal.

Predictably, this batch dominate the Top Match Batsman market but I would still say some of the odds are generous. In particular 9/1 about Rahane, who is in exceptional form right now.

Top Chennai Bowler has potential too. Tushar Deshpande bowls at the best time of the innings - start and death. He's their top bowler in the series and boasts by far their best strike-rate in this and his overall T20 career. Take the 10/3.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty