Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Punjab underrated in crucial clash

• Punjab big outsiders

• MI could go second

• Jaipur pitch may slow up

• Tilak has good head-to-head

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians
Monday 25 May, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Punjab missed their opportunity to grab a top-two slot against Delhi. Defeat here would guarantee they have to face two elimination games. 

Perhaps they need to start paying attention to fine margins. Marcus Stoinis has twice blitzed at the death and it is surely now the chance to start batting him higher up, at least ahead of Shashank Singh. The Aussie smoked 44 from 16.

With such batting depth using Azmatullah Omarzai as an opening bowler is risky with Xavier Bartlett a specialist. Subbing Harpreet Brar if they were batting first would still give them extra depth.

Possible Punjab bat XI: Arya, Prab Singh, Inglis, Wadhera, Iyer (Harpreet sub) , Stoinis, Shahshank, Jansen, Bartlett, Arshdeep, Chahal

Mumbai produced a come-from-behind win over Delhi last time to book their play-off spot. They are the team that every one fears with seven wins in their last eight. But they will lose Ryan Rickleton and Will Jacks for the play-offs.

Suryakumar Yadav produced one of his specials to drag MI from mire against Delhi and then the bowlers did the rest. Jasprit Bumrah and Mitch Santner took three apiece. Bringing back Santner is smart as he is available for the knockouts while Corbin Bosch is not. 

Possible MI bat XI: Rohit (Karn Sharma sub), Rickleton, Jacks, Suryakumar, Tilak, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Chahar, Boult, Bumrah

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians pitch report

This game comes back-to-back in Jaipur after Punjab-Delhi. Punjab posted 206. Previously there had been scores of 219, 217 and 209. It is a shift from historic scores. The surface was consistent in producing scores of between 170 and 185. And one wonders whether with traffic or a used pitch this could be time to go unders. We would expect a par line of late 180s to short. Sportsbook offer MI runs at under 189.5, a winner in five of the last seven.

The sixes line looks high at unders 18.5. On the three-year study sample that bet has won 11 times in 16. MI are averaging a shade under nine in their last ten and Punjab 9.3. This season those figures are 8.3 and ten so it's tight in that regard.

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL match prediction

After 69 matches one could have been forgiven for thinking that the match odds market would be reliable. But then up pop Punjab at 2.47147/100 to beat a Mumbai team who appear to be bombproof on any market.

The bias towards the billboard XI is understandable and historic but are they really that much better than Punjab? Where is the evidence? They have won the same number of games, they have a point less.

Admittedly MI's net run rate is superior, which is a good indicator of ability, but the argument here is not whether MI are not deserving of favourites status. It's about whether they should be as skinny as 1.684/6. Punjab have chaos in their locker for sure but they are clear value. 

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL player bets

There are a couple of interests for top MI bat with Tilak Varma in the win zone, likewise Hardik Pandya. A slower surface this time (or at least the potential for) makes HP attractive at 10/111.00. Hardik's match-up is not good, though, with an average of just 16 against Arshdeep, Harpreet, Jansen and Chahal. By contrast, Tilak averages 65 so we will take the 5/16.00. 

For Punjab, we're still raging that Stoinis didn't cop at 10s against Delhi. The win was in his hands in the last over but, surprisingly, he ceded strike off the first ball for a single and the bet was downed. It is hard not to feel that was his big chance. 

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