Mumbai Indians v Rajasthan Royals: Table-toppers a great price to win again

• Royals are top, Mumbai eighth

• Mumbai openers struggling to make good starts

• 9/2 chance Cameron Green has plenty going for him

Sunday April 30, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Mumbai Team News

With three wins from seven games, it's going to be a struggle for Mumbai to make the Playoffs from here.

There's not much wrong with their batting that features in Sky Yadav one of the very best in the business, in Tilak Varma one of the future stars of the national side and in Tim David and Cameron Green two big-hitters, who will be an important part of the Australian team for the next few years.

There's also not much wrong, on paper, with openers Ishan Kishan and Rohit Sharma, who is after all India's skipper in this format. But you don't win matches on paper and the stats show Sharma and Kishan have each passed 50 just once in seven attempts this season. This is a batting line-up that's ideal to build on good starts but perhaps not one well suited to keep on rebuilding after losing wickets.

But if their batting line-up at least looks like it it's capable of producing the goods, the bowling is more suspect.

And the stats back that up. From among bowlers to have played at least four matches, only Piyush Chawla (also their top wicket-taker with 11 in seven) has gone at less than 9.35 an over (he's going at a very respectable 7.11) while the rest are conceding 9.5-10 an over.

That's far too many. The likes of Arjun Tendulkar and Hrithik Shokeen look like they could be ones for the future but Mumbai can't keep on planning for the future and continue to disregard the present.

Last time out they were well beaten by Gujarat, no surprises there. They conceded 207, falling 55 runs short in the chase.

Let's wait and see if Jofra Archer, who has played just twice this season, is fit to feature here.

Possible XI Sharma, Kishan, Green, Yadav, Varma, David, Wadhera, Chawla, Tendulkar, Behrendorff, Meredith.

Rajasthan Team news

The Royals are top of the table and will probably be eyeing up a second consecutive IPL final as the bare minimum.

On Thursday they became the first side ever to post over 200 at Jaipur and that was mostly down to a superb innings of 77 off 43 from Yashavi Jaiswal, who has been guilty of inconsistency in the past but occasionally reminds us all why the Royals have shown so much faith in him.

But almost as important were knocks of 34 off 15 and 27 off 13 from Dhruv Jurel and Devdutt Padikkal. The fact that those three came up with runs on a day when Jos Buttler, Sanju Samson and Shimron Hetmyer didn't come off, is a good omen for the rest of the tournament.

In the absence of the injured Trent Boult, Adam Zampa came in and claimed 3-22. That's important as well. Not only is Zampa a fine replacement for either Jason Holder or Boult in case of injury but down the line they may decide to play him as part of a triumvirate of spinners when the pitches start to wear.

This lot are going to be hard to beat

Possible XI Jaiswal, Buttler, Paddikkal, Samson, Hetmyer, Jurel, Ashwin, Holder, Sharma, Chahal, Zampa/Boult

Pitch report

157/8, 185/6 and 214/8 have been the first innings scores at the Wankhede Stadium so far this season, an average of 185. The first two were chased; Punjab successfully defended the 214.

That 185 is considerably above the overall average of 167 in IPL matches here.

The chaser wins 53% of matches here in the IPL, which is a little less than expected for a ground that's often seen as one ideal for bowling first at.

How to play

Rajasthan are 1.910/11 to win and that looks wrong. Last season they were runners-up, last season Mumbai were rock bottom.

This season the Royals are currently top, the Indians are currently eighth.

The Royals look extremely strong in both disciplines, Mumbai are struggling in both departments.

Beyond that, the key is that the Royals look well-equipped to defend a par score or chase anything, Mumbai look incapable of defending anything par or beneath given their economy rate woes; so we're not nervous about the toss going against them.

This looks like a rare case of an excellent side being bigger than they should be against a weak one with plenty of flaws. It's not worth over-thinking: the Royals are a strong pick here.

Top Bat Bets: Time to go Green

Cameron Green, a big money signing, has been one of the few positives for Mumbai this season.

He's been batting at number three and has already won this market twice with scores of 64 and 67 respectively.

One of the concerns you always have with a non-opener is that they might not have enough time at the crease to match what numbers 1 or 2 get but that shouldn't be a concern here. We've seen how Kishan and Sharma have only got to 50 once each so Green should be arriving at the crease in good time to have his destiny in his own hands.

And the pitch should suit him. He may not be one to compile a smart innings on a tricky pitch but he's certainly well-suited to playing big shots on a good wicket, which should be the case here.

So it's surprising that he's 9/2 and though he has some good players to beat, he's got a lot going for him, especially on price.

Padikkal looks chunky

Devdutt Padikkal has been moved up and down the order depending on match-ups and the situation of the game.

But there's a decent chance that he could bat as high as 3. He's made plenty of starts and has passed 20 in each of his last six knocks, though admittedly only got to 50 in one of them.

At 6/1 he could be worth a wager to kick on.