Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants IPL Tips; LSG underrated in wooden spoon clash

Click here Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants odds
Monday 4 May,15:00
TV: Sky Sports

Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants IPL team news

Mumbai Indians, once again, did not stick with a consistent XI against Chennai. Ashwani Kumar felt the axe this time. The team which has used more players than any other team were well-beaten, of course. Their play-off hopes are almost certainly over. Even winning all their remaining games probably won't be enough.

Rohit Sharma remains a doubt with a hamstring problem but why pick him anyway? It would disrupt an opening partnership of Will Jacks and Ryan Rickleton which has promise.

Possible XI: Rickleton, Jacks, Dhir, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Minz (sub Ghazanfar), Thakur, Bhagat, Ashwani, Bumrah

Lucknow have Josh Inglis available for the first time this season and he may come straight into the XI to replace Nic Pooran. Matthew Breetzke has left the squad.

Pooran is suffering a form crisis. The nadir came in a Super Over defeat by KKR when was out for a golden duck and LSG were 'bowled out' off three balls. Pooran has passed 20 just once in a horror show. It would make sense if they took him out of the firing line.

Possible XI: Markram, Marsh, Pant, Inglis, Badoni, Choudhary, Hinmat (Mohsin), Linde, Shami, Prince, Digvesh

Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants IPL pitch report

The Wankhede has hosted 19 night matches in the last three years in IPL with a run rate of 9.761. That's split by 9.6 in the first- and 9.8 in the second-innings. Eleven have been won by the side batting second. That might be the key stat for the contest.

Last time out on this ground Mumbai posted 243 and failed to defend. Four of the five matches have produced first-innings total of more than 200. We are slightly wary of a bowler-friendly surface at some stage, though. There has been significant traffic through this square this year.

Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants IPL match prediction

Mumbai Indians are as short as 1.608/13 for this one. Regular readers of these IPL reviews will have learned before of the belief that this sort of price is the realm of the really crack franchise unit. A team which will lose only a handful of games a season and finish in the top two of the league standings. A Punjab. A RCB.

So what the hell are MI doing there? Simply, the market remains obsessed with the big names like Hardik Pandya Sky Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah and, to a lesser extent, Rohit. Forget the actual evidence of what this lot have done on the pitch. The rationale seems to be 'oh, they'll turn up at some stage.' It sure as hell doesn't look like it.

Mumbai have lost seven from nine matches. Their net run rate is the third worst in the competition. Their bowling economy is rock-bottom. The big names have left it to each other and, not for the first time, there appears to be little belief in the leadership of Hardik.

We don't pretend LSG are world beaters. But all we need to get on board with is the idea that they are as good. Or as bad, more likely. There's a important piece of evidence, though, that makes betting them very easy. LSG are the most economical bowling team in IPL. It is a surprising statistic and it just makes them a must bet here.

Mumbai Indians v Lucknow Super Giants IPL player tips

With the possibility of a bowler-friendly contest at the Wankhede at some stage in mind, big prices on the top bats are not out of the question. We do have an interest in musclebound LSG hitter Hinmat Singh as a result.

He looked impressive in that farcical defeat by KKR and the 11/112.00 is a price we can get on board with. Indeed, he is one to make a note on going forward, particularly on wickets we know will offer help to bowlers. He could win this market at some stage with a late 30-odd

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