Mumbai Indians v Kolkata Knight Riders
Monday 9 May 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Mumbai bowling a problem
Mumbai's hopes of a play-off spot are long gone but they showed against Gujarat Titans last time that they will go down with some fight. It was their second win on the spin.
It is perhaps no coincidence that form has ticked up since Suryakumar Yadav returned to his rightful spot at No 3. Get your best players in as early as possible. Tim David providing late muscle has also been the right call.
There are still issues. The bowling remains weak and Jasprit Bumrah's lack of potency is a major worry. Riley Meredith (five wickets) has as many wickets in six fewer games than Bumrah.
Possible XI: Kishan, Rohit, Yadav, Varma, Pollard, David, Sams, Murugan, Kartikeya, Bumrah, Meredith
McCullum the culprit
Kolkata's tournament is also over. Defeat by Lucknow Super Giants last time out ended their chances and they can only achieve 14 points.
Unlike Mumbai, whose recruitment was odd, Kolkata have underachieved. And coach Brendon McCullum must take the blame.
Set up to play in a high-risk, carefree way, McCullum instilled fear into his troops by dropping players when they underperformed. They have not recovered.
Their opening combination seems to change every other game. For this one it is possible Sam Billings might come in with the axe falling on Aaron Finch.
Possible XI: Indrajith, Billings, Shreyas, Rana, Rinku, Russell, Narine, Anukul, Mavi, Southee, Harshit
The first-innings scores at the DY Patil this season (1-2 denote match won by team batting first or second, most recent first) read: 208-1/143-2/158-2/156-1/155-2/181-1/151-1/192-1/216-1/162-2/154-2/149-2/169-1/193-1/128-2/205-2.
It's a decent study sample and the first-innings average is bang on 170. That makes us nervous about paying high 170s on the runs par line, even if Chennai took Delhi's bowlers to the cleaners on Sun-day with 208. Both teams to score 170 is rated at 9/5 with Sportsbook.
Choice affair with toss key
Mumbai Indians are 1.875/6 with KKR 2.1211/10. This is a choice affair if ever there was one with both teams as poor as each other.
Dealing with Mumbai first, they shouldn't be favourites to beat anyone given their performances and a bowling attack which is producing second-rate numbers.
Kolkata seem almost entirely reliant on Andre Russell's late hitting. He has had a superb season. Russell, Shreyas Iyer, Nitish Rana and Sunil Narine are the only players to have been ever-present.
With both teams low on confidence, the toss should be key and we would expect scoreboard pressure to make all the difference
As alluded to earlier in this preview, Billings could be parachuted in to open. So Sportsbook's 6/1 that he top scores for KKR has some appeal.
Russell and Shreyas are both bets on win rate at 15/2 and a boosted 10/3 respectively. Shreyas is probably the only India player to have enhanced his reputation in the tournament.
Rohit Sharma is showing much better form of late and the boosted 3/1 for top bat will prove popular. Yadav is 3/1. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.