Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: can MI pass spin test?

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians
Friday 4 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Lucknow Super Giants have been a handed another boost with Akash Deep being declared fit to play. .However, he could come in for Avesh Khan, who has been pricey and without threat in two games. Avesh has also just returned from the treatment table.

Their bowling, then, remains a worry. Not least because Ravi Bishnoi has been expensive. Bishnoi has hitherto been Mr Reliable. 

Nic Pooran is carrying the batting somewhat. They need more from Aiden Markram and Rishabh Pant, who is looking like bad value after breaking the record at the auction. 

Probable LSG XI: Marsh (Rathi sub), Markram, Pooran, Pant, Badoni, Miller, Samad, Shardul, Bishnoi, Deep, Siddharth/Avesh

Mumbai Indians got some points on the board thanks to early seam and swing at the Wankhede at Eden Gardens.  They are feeling very smug at unleashing scout picks like spinner Vignesh Puthur and left-armer Ashwani Kumar.

Problems to solve may be limited to Rohit Sharma finding form but there has been a steady decline in this format for The Hitman. Will Jacks has been sacrificed to get balance at the top of the order. 

Possible MI XI: Rohit (Mujeeb sub), Rickleton, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Chahar, Boult, Kumar, Puthur

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

Lucknow coach Zaheer Khan took a leaf out of Stephen Fleming's book and blamed the lack of home advantage on their own ground against Punjab. They were outclassed. in time, it may become apparent that poor performances are due to an ill-balanced squad and massive spend on one player. For now, Zaheer has decided to switch play to a black soil surface instead of a red one. Black soil is expected to spin more.

A runfest wasn't expected to be fair. In the 15 IPL matches at Lucknow, more than 190 has now been busted four times in first-innings. The 20-over par line reflects that with unders at 176.5. Lucknow managed only 171 against Punjab and it could be that the switch makes things harder for both teams Lucknow will hope this is the case because they would be keen to get Bishnoi and Digvesh Rathi into the game. 

the sixes mark may be a little high if we're right about this surface being slower. There have been 15 IPL matches at this venue and ten have come under the 17.5 mark offered by Sportsbook at 5/61.84. 

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians  IPL match prediction 

Mumbai Indians are 1.695/7 favourites with Lucknow Super Giants 2.407/5. These pages have suggested both teams were value to finish bottom so it should not be a surprise that the analysis includes the words: this should be closer to a choice affair.

Of course that is rarely the case with Mumbai, who are consistently overrated in the market. There is more science to the idea that they are poor value here, though, if Lucknow get the spinning surface they desire. Mumbai are poor players of spin.

In three matches this season they have a combined record of 161 runs scored off 23 overs for six wickets. That equates to economy rate of just seven. We would expect to see a much higher number for such short favourites. 

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians  IPL strategies

Where Mumbai do have the edge is with the ball in the powerplay. In Trent Boult and Deepak Chahar they have two of the most potent bowlers in the first six in the last two years. They are both in the top four for most wickets taken at this stage.

That opens up a strategy on the match odds. Basically you're betting on an early wicket, expecting Mumbai to shorten and LSG to drift. The other option is to take the 10/111.91 that Mumbai have the highest opening partnership. That looks a decent bet and we're suprised MI aren't the favourites on that one.

Lucknow Super Giants v Mumbai Indians IPL player bets

There are few standout prices on the player markets but Hardik Pandya may be of interest at 9/110.00 for top bat. On a slow surface he could be required for a late injection of pace and 40-odd can win this. With Bishnoi potentially crucial, we note the 20.5 mark on the player performance (1pt per run, 10 for a catch, 20 for a wicket) at overs for 10/111.91.  He has an IPL career average of 23 and 28 against Mumbai. Bishnoi turn the ball into the right-hander, a similar spin to Noor Ahmad who ruined MI for Chennai.

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