Kolkata Knight Riders v Sunrisers Hyderabad IPL Tips: Finishers to make hay at Eden Gardens

• Batting first looks advantageous

• 180 will be tough to chase

• Back big runs late in first innings

Kolkata Knight Riders v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Friday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Friday's match involves two sides in the middle of the outright betting. Outside the top-four, but not without chances of finishing there to make the play-offs. Indeed, I would say KKR and Sunrisers are the hardest two sides to analyse based on what we now and have seen.

Can KKR keep producing miracles?

With two wins from three, Kolkata are defying their pre-tournament status as rank outsiders and favourites for the wooden spoon. However both wins came courtesy of near-impossible to repeat middle-order heroics. Most obviously, Rinku Singh hitting five off the last five to complete a 1000/1 in-play upset over Gujurat. Doubts persist regarding their top order.

Sunrisers started with two heavy defeats but turned it around with an easy win over Punjab. The bad start can be explained in part by their South African trio's absence, and they looked much more balanced with Marco Jansen in the all-rounder role. Their squad remains, however, in transition, requiring tough selection calls to accomodate their overseas players.

Spinners could be in their element

The first match at Eden Gardens saw a spin-friendly surface, with batting getting harder in the second innings. This may be a rare case of batting first being an advantage, as defenders lead 13-11 over the past five years.

Conditions didn't prevent KKR passing 200 in the first innings. That reflects the short boundaries and potential for very big scores on an easier surface. Over the past five years, 75% of first innings were 175 or higher, and 29% 200 or higher. 11 or more sixes were hit in 83% of matches.

Two in-play strategies to follow

We previewed this match in Cricket...Only Bettor and since reflecting, I believe the superior betting angles lie in-play, rather than pre-match. First, look to back the defending side if they can register 180 plus. Second, back 'overs' on runs after the first strategic timeout. Extremely high scores are realistic, late in the innings.

The last six matches at Eden Gardens produced these run totals at the end of the first innings. 134 off the last 11 overs, 155 off 14, 133 off 14, 118 off 10.33, 113 off 10, 86 off 10. Note the last, much inferior total was West Indies, who were big underdogs for the match. Against the same opponent, India hit 85 off their last five overs.

If we get another spin-friendly surface, KKR look slightly better equipped. They already field Narine, Chakravarthy and Sayush Sharma. Sunrisers could presumably bring back Adil Rashid to partner Mayank Markande and Washington Sundar. But that involves dropping an important overseas player.

Sunrisers finishers to come good

If it boils down to sixes, KKR have a huge edge from a tiny sample this season, leading 31-11. I expect sooner or later Sunrisers will show their middle-order can compete better in that department. Finishers Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, Marco Jansen and Abdul Samad could do serious damage at this ground.

Today's two #OddsBoost batsmen are Rahmanullah Gurbaz and Harry Brook, enhanced to 10/3 and 3/1 respectively for Top KKR and Sunrisers Batsman. I prefer alternatives.

I suspect the final overseas spot for Sunrisers will come down to Brook and Klaasen. In the hope the latter gets in, 7/1 appeals. He has been in superb form and could be one of the stars of white-ball cricket in 2023. Equally 11/2 about Markram is generous. They'll likely come in at four and five, in time for the boundaries slog.

For KKR, 9/2 about Venkatesh Iyer looks overpriced. They've been using him as the impact player, batting between two and four. He won this market with 83 off 40 last time and he lost it by a single run in their opener.

*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty