Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore IPL Tips: Kohli runs may be in vain

• KKR may be underrated

• Flat pitch means runs again

• Kohli solid at 5/2

• Read about Ed's Betfair Exchange strategy below

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore
Sunday 21 April, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore team news

There remains room for improvement for Kolkata, who are in a great position despite defeat by Rajasthan last time. If they can get Nitish Rana fit they strengthen their batting and are able to leave out the disappointing Venkatesh Iyer.

Possible XI: Salt, Narine, Raghuvanshi, Rana, Shreyas, Rinku/Arora (subs), Russell, Ramandeep, Starc, Harshit, Varun

Bangalore remain reliably dreadful. Their batting is okay but their bowling is horrific. There's nowt they can do about the latter considering they wasted all their cash on overrated foreign bats. They tried Lockie Ferguson last time and conceded 287 against Sunrisers. Siraj, he of the three-year 8% win rate on top bowler, has been dropped.

Possible XI: Kohli, Du Plessis, Jacks, Patidar, Chauhan, Karthik, Lomror, Dayal/Rawat (subs), Vyshak, Topley, Ferguson

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore pitch report

Runs look guaranteed on a good Eden Gardens surface. Both KKR and Sunrisers hit 200 in the opener and in the previous match Royals chased 224. Stats include: 78% of first innings over the past five years were 170+ and 35% hit the 200 target. Given that KKR have a bowling economy of 9.2 and Bangalore 10.7, anything around 4/15.00 for both teams to bust 200 was likely to be filled in so the 10/34.33isn't quite for us. Let's switch to a more prosaic btts 180 at 10/111.91.

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore match odds

Bangalore have lost six of seven. What they desperately need is a tacky, tired surface to bridge the gap between them and other teams in the field. They are unlikely to get that here.

It is surprising, therefore, to see Kolkata as big as 1.774/5. They are at least a 1.705/7 shot in our book. Perhaps there is concern about the toss?

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore Exchange strategy

And that could be justified. Bangalore can, at least, bat reasonably well. And if they bat first at Eden Gardens on a flat one against a KKR attack which is inefficient, they may well flip these odds.

We would never recommend a trade on Bangalore with the ball but it's an option with the bat here.

Alternatively, wait until the break and if KKR are in that 2.206/5 region we expect them to get up.

Kolkata Knight Riders v Royal Challengers Bangalore player bets

Virat Kohli averages 41 at Eden Gardens and 37 against KKR. Sportsbook go 5/23.50 but he could be boosted to 11/43.75. He is winning at a rate of 32%. Andre Russell's price for top KKR bat is creeping up again at 13/27.50 although we might prefer a less road-like surface.

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