IPL Wednesday Tips: Warner worth a risk to roll back the years

David Warner
Can Warner hit back?

Ed Hawkins says punters should not miss out on two big-name openers in the IPL on Wednesday

"Kohli has a win rate of 33%, De Villiers 27.5%. Only one man is value. Kohli has been price-boosted to 12/5 giving punters almost six points on implied probability"

(1.5pts) Back Virat Kohli top Bangalore bat 3.6013/5

Bangalore Royal Challengers v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Wednesday 12 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top Sunrisers bat

Sportsbook have boosted David Warner to a massive 3/1. On win rate (last three years), Warner has been copping at the rate of 31%.

The problem with Warner is this: is he still the same player he was two years ago, let alone three? There are signs that he is particularly vulnerable to high pace. Against Kolkata Knight Riders he got knocked over with ease.

With Jonny Bairstow down in the middle-order, rendering data when he has been opening useless, Warner might be worth a small risk. The other option is Abdul Samad, who is a star in the making. There are no numbers to go on apart from the fact that he is the best boundary hitter. The 17/1 could look huge by the end of the tournament.

Top Bangalore bat

Virat Kohli's self-promotion to open the innings for Bangalore against Mumbai Indians in the tournament opener could have been costly. His 33 from 29 was far too slow and put his team in trouble.

AB De Villiers, however, came to the rescue. AB smashed 48 from 27 to take top-bat honours and give Bangalore the win. Punters must decide between these two in this contest.

Kohli has a win rate of 33%, De Villiers 27.5%. Only one man is value. Kohli has been price-boosted to 13/5 giving punters almost six points on implied probability. De Villiers is in the red at a scandalous 3/1. Way too short for a guy who could bat at No 5.

Washington Sundar opened alongside Kohli and Sportsbook go 5/1. We expect, however, that Dev Paddikal will return to the starting XI.

Top Sunrisers bowler

Sunrisers death bowler Natarajan looked rusty in his team's first game. Ordinarily we'd be pinning our hopes on him improving in game two at Sportsbook's 10/3.

But we have to swerve because in Chennai spinners dominate on balls per wicket while pacers struggle. Rashid Khan is mighty short at 7/4 so Mohammad Nabi might manage another tie at 9/2.

Bangalore v Sunrisers full match preview here

Fate of the favourites in IPL? This week on Cricket...Only Bettor

Ed Hawkins P-L

2021: +16.29
2020: +5.91
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end

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