Sunrisers Hyderanad v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday 28 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Still on Samad
David Warner has a 30% win rate on top the top runscorer markets in the last four editions (including this one) of the IPL. Sportsbook have price-boosted him from 2/1 to 12/5. Providing us with a 0.6% edge. It's about as slim as it gets but it's just about enough to hang a wager on.
What may convince you that Warner is value is his record against Chennai, which is impressive. He has six fifties and one century against them, averages 38 and strikes at just shy of 150. It doesn't get much better than that.
As you can see from the chart below, Warner also performs well against the individual Chennai bowlers, apart from one. Shardul Thakur, Deepak Chahar and Lungi Ngidi have taken his wicket just once. Expect the Super Kings to get Sam Curran into the game early against Warner, then.
Other prices of note may be the 4/5 that Warner busts 27.5. He has made this mark ten times in his 17 innings against the Super Kings. With the relationship between top match bat and man of the match strong, he is 7/2 and 8/1 respectively.
Warner balls/outs/SR v CSK
Warner has plenty to prove after his disastrous decision to bat himself in the Super Over instead of Jonny Bairstow against Delhi Capitals. That's ego right there. One way to make amends would be a good score, another would be to insist Abdul Samad is returned to the XI. Samad's hitting could save their season and we once again recommened betting him at 16s. In-play you can expect to get twice that.
Ngidi a bet
This column advised Ravi Jadeja at 22/1 for top Chennai bat against Bangalore. He obliged but he required a record-breaking over to do it, taking 37 off Harshal Patel.
Jadeja has now been slashed to 8/1. The value has long gone. Instead, MS Dhoni has been pushed out to 16s by Sportsbook. That's almost three points in our favour on implied probability according to the database. The problem with Dhoni, alas, is that he's not the same player he was at the start of that study and he's batting lower.
Faf Du Plessis is the man to beat and Sportsbook have boosted his price to 5/2. We've missed the boat with Faf, losing faith after two games and playing catch-up ever since.
One Chennai man we are keen on is Lungi Ngidi for top bowler. He is 3/1. His pace might trouble Bairstow and Warner but there is a doubt as to whether he will get a game. Money back if he doesn't play.