Ed Hawkins uncovers value at prices as big as 10/1 and 19/1 for Wednesday action in the IPL...
"Pooran is also value at 13/2, a big hike from prices of 4/1 at the start of the tournament. He is due a score"
Punjab Kings v Sunrisers Hyderabad
Wednesday 21 April, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
KL Rahul is the most reliable top runscorer wager in the tournament with a win rate of almost 40%. He has one win so far from three.
Sportsbook offer 12/5, price-boosted from 2/1. He averages more than 40 against Sunrisers with a strike rate of 127. His more circumspect style is often criticised but it could be useful on a pitch where 160 is very competitive.
Nic Pooran is also value at 13/2, a big hike from prices of 4/1 at the start of the tournament. He is due a score.
Spin is dominant in Chennai and Kings may require to pick both Murugan Ashwin and Ravi Bishnoi to be in the game. They have return rates of 26% and 28% respectively. Ashwin is 5s and Bishnoi 4s with Sportsbook. Split stakes on the pair.
Stick with Samad
There are a couple of chunky prices to take with Sunrisers players for runs and a strong performance.
Abdul Samad is worth retaining faith in. We have written before about his fantastic strike rate and solid average and although he has been disappointing so far, the 19/1 that Sportsbook offer remains too big. It's an edge on win rate, too.
Mohammad Nabi is taken to go well. On a spinning surface his bowling is more than useful and his hitting underrated. The 14/1 about a man of the match gong gives us significant points in our favour. Nabi is one of the most reliable match gong winners in franchise history with a 10% success rate.
Kolkata Knight Riders v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday 21 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Crazy price number one
Dinesh Karthik is 19/1 for top KKR bat in this contest. It looks a massive rick by Sportsbook. But it's not quite as big as you'd think - only by a smidge over one per cent on implied probability on three-year win rate.
In terms of where he bats, though, and talent, it is a price we cannot ignore. last time out he batted at No 5 and in KKR's two previous games he was in at No 6. He is a fabulous player at the death and we'll keep our fingers crossed that he has little to beat and he can get to the crease with time on his side.
Early on in the tournament we were on Pat Cummins for a shock win in the 30s. He's now out to 70/1. Is that too big for a No 8 with his skill? Possibly. Is it too big for his win rate? Definitely.
Crazy price number two
We don't expect Lungi Ngidi to get a game but we back him every time anyway because it's money back. Simply Ngidi should be jolly on this market because his insane strike rate and 10/3 is way too big.
For runs, the edge on Sam Curran has closed at 11/1, although we are aware that he could be promoted any game now - perhaps if the Super Kings lose faith with Ruturaj Gaikwad. Ravi Jadeja is slightly overpiced at 20s while there's a big chunk on MS Dhoni at 14/1. But you are raging against the dying of the light - like the man himself - with that wager.
It may be wise to keep the powder dry on such wagers until Chennai get on a more tricky batting surface.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end
(0.5pts) Back Nic Pooran top Punjab bat 7.5013/2
(0.5pts) Back Murugan Ashwin top Punjab bowler 6.05/1
(0.5pts) Back Ravi Bishnoi top Punjab bowler 5.04/1
(0.5pts) Back Abdul Samad top SRH bat 20.019/1
(0.25pts) Back Mohammad nabi man of the match 15.014/1
(0.5pts) Back Dinesh Karthik top KKR bat 20.019/1
(2pts) Back Lungi Ngidi top CSK bowler 4.3310/3