Ed Hawkins checks the side markets as Sunrisers take on Mumbai in the IPL clash on Tuesday.
"The best ploy is to have small gambles on Abdul Samad and Mohammad Nabi at double their starting prices of 25s and 14s respectively"
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Mumbai Indians
Tuesday 4 May 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Polly at the double
Kieron Pollard produced a sensational knock to down Chennai Super Kings last time out., Can he go big again? Pollard was unfortunate not to top in the previous meeting against SRH. His 35 came off just 22 balls. He ran out of time, though, with Quinton de Kock's ponderous 40 from 42 all he needed to beat.
There's not been much to beat in Mumbai's batting all term. We were on Pollard in that Sunrisers game. This was because he has a superb record against individual bowlers, as he proved with that cameo.
Sportsbook go 7/1 this time and it is possible he could bat as high as No 4 with Ishan Kishan, priced at 9/2, out of favour. In-play Pollard could easily be available at 10s or 12s with a flurry of runs from De Kock or Rohit Sharma in the opening berth. The wicket looks pretty flat, as discussed in our match preview.
Rohit has been price-boosted to 13/5 but, despite a good season so far, it's not value on four-year win rate. Hardik Pandya may also be considered tempting at 7s but he has not won this season and only had a 6.6% success rate in the previous three years.
Go for big numbers
David Warner remains at 21/10 favourite to top for Sunrisers. So with him almost certain not to play after he was axed, there should be a plethora of value on the market.
However, the most likely picks, Kane Williamson and Jonny Bairstow, are not value. Williamson is 5/2 and we'd be wanting 4s on win rate. Bairstow has four wins in his last 16 as openers for Sunrisers, a 25% win rate. Sportsbook's 13/5 (27.8%) is close therefore, but no cigar.
The best ploy is to have small gambles on Abdul Samad and Mohammad Nabi at double their starting prices of 25s and 14s respectively. A quickfire 30 may well be enough.
Shankar catches eye
All-rounder Vijay Shankar is the rag for top Sunrisers bowler at 7/1. He might be a bit of value. Shankar bowled at the death in the Rajasthan Royals blitz.
And although he went for 11 an over off the final six, it was hardly a disaster. Indeed, some may consider that a result considering Royals posted 220.
Will Shankar bowl at the death again? It depends whether skip Williamson fudged his bowling options or not and had no choice. One suspects he did.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end