Ed Hawkins picks out a wager on an Australian for the IPL action on Sunday - but for what he could do with the bat rather than the ball...
"Pat Cummins is 27.026/1 on the exchange and with a win rate of 14% should be given more respect"
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders
Sunday 11 April, 13:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Sunrisers bat
How Sunrisers fit in two from David Warner, Jonny Bairstow, Jason Roy and Kane Williamson into their XI will probably dictate whether they have a successful tournament. The only guaranteed starter is Warner, the captain, who goes off at Sportsbook's 5/2 for top bat. On win rates in the last three years it's an edge of 3.5%.
Who joins him at the top of the order? Well, he and Bairstow formed a formidable partnership before it was split up when Sunrisers realised they were imbalanced last season. Bairstow has a win rate of 33% meaning there is a big edge on the 11/4 - but only if we could be sure he would open.
Wriddi Saha finished the 2020 campaign as Sunrisers' opener, boosting his win rate to 22.2%. If he were to hold on to that position the 4/1 would represent value. Williamson, by contrast, is the same price but has a win rate of 19% - meaning he is too skinny by one. Manish Pandey is the surprise package. Sportsbook go 9/2 when he should be 4/1.
With so many batters giving edges - and the order not known - it may be wise to play a watching brief.
Top Kolkata bat
Shubmann Gill is expected to open for KKR with either Rahul Tripathi or Ntish Rana. Sportsbook go 12/5, 4/1 and 4/1 respectively. All are too short on win rates.
In fact, there is only one 'wrong' price on the market. Pat Cummins is 27.026/1 on the exchange and with a win rate of 14% should be given more respect. Andre Russell, no wins last season, has a rate of 16.6% so the 5/1 is bang on.
Top SRH bowler
It's Rashid Khan versus Natarajan for top bowler for Sunrisers. Rashid returns 45% of the time and Natarajan 31%.
The latter, as you would expect, has more appeal at 10/3 than Rashid at 7/4. You'll get more bang for your buck in a tie with him. Jason Holder is also an interesting price at7/2 because he had five returns in seven last term.
Top KKR bowler
The big question for the Kolkata bowler market is this: how much faith do we show in one-season form?
Varun Chakravarthy had a sensation campaign last season, returning 57% of the time. The spinner is third-favourite at 10/3 behind Pat Cummins (21%) 5/2 and Lockie Ferguson (30%) at 11/4, who probably won't play.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end