IPL Saturday Tips: Samson can show his strength

Ed Hawkins
Published on 23 Apr 2021 at 11:13
2:00 min read

Ed's data suggests Sanju Samson's price is too big

"On three-year win rate Rana is not a wager. However, in the nine matches he has opened he has won five times"

Ed Hawkins picks two strong-arm hitters to follow for the action from the Wankhede Stadium in Saturday's IPL clash

Kolkata Knight Riders v Rajasthan Royals
Saturday 24 April 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top Kolkata bat

Pat Cummins landed the biggest odds of the IPL so far - a 870/1 top-bat success for Kolkata Knight Riders against Chennai Super Kings. It was a huge rick on win rate and was a reminder to keep taking wrong prices.

Alas there is no such stand-out value pick this time. Andre Russell has been boosted to 5/1 but that's not big enough.

Nitish Rana will be a fancy at a healthy 3/1. On three-year win rate it is not a wager. However, he hasn't been opening for that length of time and in the nine matches he has opened he has won five times. The planets are not all in line, though. He has a surprisingly poor record against Rajasthan.

Top Rajasthan bat

There is a slim one-point edge on Sanju Samson for top Rajasthan bat after he was price-boosted by Sportsbook to 7/2.

Since his brilliant - but ultimately futile - century against Punjab Kings in their first match of the tournament, Samson has been disappointing, passing 20 once.

The Wankhede pitch obviously suits his style but there are doubts as to whether the KKR bowlers will. Samson has a average record, averaging just 23 with a strike rate of 123.

Samson is the only 'wrong' price available, however. We have been consistent in our support for Riyan Parag and Rahul Tewatia but at 12/1 and 13/2 respectively the value has gone. Tewatia really should have copped last time out against Bangalore and was one scoring shot away.

Chris Morris catches the eye again at 25/1 but there is actually no evidence he should be as short. There is no evidence Jos Buttler should be as short as 2/1. That's the sort of price we expect on the like of Rl Rahul and Shikhar Dhawan who are far more reliable on win rates.

Top Rajasthan bowler

Rajasthan are in a mess with their selection, injuries and withdrawals. They have only five overseas players for four slots and in Mustafizur Rahman they have a passenger. He is proving expensive. If they decide to try a new approach AJ Tye will get a game as the only bench option. He is 7/2 for top Royals bowler. It's a price of interest because he is usually used at the death.

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Recommended bets

(1pt) Back Sanju Samson top Royals bat 4.507/2
(1pt) Back Nitish Rana top KKR bat 4.03/1

Ed Hawkins P-L

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2019: +37.25pts
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2015: +38pts
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2013: +25pts
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