Ed Hawkins recommends bets at 10/3 and 11/1 for the action in the IPL from Ahmedabad on Monday...
"Rana has a strike rate of 145 against Punjab, a number which suggests he should be more than comfortable"
Punjab Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
Monday 26 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Top Punjab bat
We had a nice winner on KL Rahul in Punjab's surprise success over Mumbai Indians. He remains the top-rated player to follow for batsman honours.
Even though his price has been boosted to 12/5 by Sportsbook we will swerve him this time. Rahul has been recommended in our match preview but regular readers of this column will be aware we don't like to follow in for back-to-back winners.
Instead we're eyeing the 11/1 about Moises Henriques topping with interest. We have him down at around a 15% win rate on career form. Two- and three-year data on the Big Bash had him winning close to a 4/1 chance.
It is true that he has rarely batted as low as No 6 but we're not exactly convinced that Rahul aside, he needs much to win here. It's worth a half-stakes interest.
The Ahmedabad pitch could well be a road. We just don't know. In the India-England T20 series the surface got better as the five-game series wore on.
We've been keeping our powder dry on a Chris Gayle man of the match wager for the flat track in Bangalore but 10/1 might tempt us out early.
Top KKR bat
Nitish Rana fell just too early for top dog for Kolkata against Rajasthan Royals, being pipped by Rahul Tripathi. Do we go in again at enhanced odds of 10/3?
Prices versus win rate makes it a wager. What should also be under consideration is his record against the Punjab attack which, for the majority of this tournament, has been leaky.
He has a strike rate of 145 against them, a number which suggests he should be more than comfortable. Curiously, though, he has face minimal deliveries from Mohammad Shami, Murugan Ashwin and Arshdeep.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end