Ed Hawkins' IPL 2025 Verdict: Back Punjab to crack top four and Mumbai to finish bottom at 25/1

• Formbook is unreliable post-mega auction

• Can Sunrisers go one better in 2025?

• Kolkata deserve more respect in the betting

• Mumbai worried by Bumrah injury

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IPL Saturday Superboost

Betfair are offering punters a brilliant superboost for Kolkata Knight Riders v RC Bengaluru - the first match of the Indian Premier League 2025 - and the focus is on a legend of the game.

Virat Kholi hit 38 sixes in IPL 2024, on the way to becoming the season's top run-scorer, so the chance to back Kohli to hit a six at 6/42.50 boosted from 4/61.67 in this year's curtain-raiser is not one to miss. 

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part 1: the bottom 5

IPL 2025 winner - Kolkata may have gone under radar

The 2025 IPL outright market has fluctuated like few before it. Before a ball has been bowled there have been three different favourites and the prices on individual teams have gone up and down like US stocks.

Value has been here today and gone tomorrow. As this Saturday's tournament opener approaches, however, the outright may have settled. Sunrisers Hyderabad, runners-up last season, have hardened to 7/24.50, leading Chennai Super Kings at 4/15.00 and Mumbai Indians at 9/25.50.

Post-auction Sunrisers were as big as 8/19.00. The boat has left the dock on Sunrisers and it is hard to argue they are now a wrong price. And that is our watch phrase when trying to find a winner: which team has been underrated on the market?

Kolkata Knight Riders have their hand up at the back. They have epitomised the flux of the market coming in and out. Currently they are 17/29.50. The champions deserve more respect and their squad remains stronger than most.

Betfair Sportsbook are offering a £1 free bet every time your outright selection (£10 minimum stake) wins a match. Kolkata may not be the worst options to take advantage.

After the mega auction, KKR were all the rage so the drift has been hard to understand. Mind you, the mega auction often causes consternation and confusion. The formbook does tend to go out of the window, although the study sample is small.

The title winners in such a year come from, literally, nowhere. Kolkata from seventh in 2014, Chennai after a two-year suspension in 2018 and the newly-formed Gujarat in 2022.

The holders have also struggled with a play-off and a fifth-placed finish for Mumbai Indians and a ninth place for Chennai in 2022. A runner-up the year before mega auction is yet to win.

Sunrisers could bust runner-up trend

Sunrisers could well bust that trend. They are set to be rocket-fuelled with the bat again. A high-scoring tournament is expected. The ability to score quickly, allied with a mean bowling unit, is ideal and in that respect Kolkata look well-equipped.

Sunrisers had the ninth-worst bowling economy last term but have improved their options by signing Mohammad Shami.

It is difficult to see Royal Challengers Bangalore, who are 9/110.00, bridge the gap. They are overly-reliant on Josh Hazlewood staying fit and have consistently failed to address bowling depth.

Chennai we have concerns about because of batting power. They were the tightest in the field last season but couldn't make the play-offs. The work in the auction doesn't suggest they have definitively solved their main issue

Lucknow Super Giants at 14/115.00 and Gujarat Titans at 11/112.00 may not trouble the top four. Gujarat have lost another key performer in Shami and it could be a struggle.

Delhi Capitals and Punjab Kings, two teams who consistently underperform, may have decent balance this time at 12/113.00 and 12/113.00 respectively.

IPL 2025 Outright market trades - Punjab's year?

Punjab Kings are the punchline to every IPL season. Even calling them Spursy wouldn't do them justice. For 10 straight league seasons they have not made the play-offs. And after each auction they flip to different strategies and skills.

But (and that word is doing a lot of hefty lifting) could this be the year they finally make an assault on the title?

Peculiarly for Punjab, they have rare balance. They have a strong Indian core, led by new skip Shreyas Iyer (who led KKR's title campaign) and finished off by the death work of the superb Arshdeep Singh. And in the auction they focussed on acquiring players who actually win matches - Yuz Chahal, Nehal Wadhera and Marcus Stoinis are excellent signings. Glen Maxwell wasn't bad, either. 

Stoinis, guided by new coach Ricky Ponting, might be the catalyst for change. It's time this lot toughened up and battled. Stoinis is one of five Aussies who can collectively demand more. 

Picking the right XI could be crucial. Support for Arshdeep may be their issue and it could be worth considering Lockie Fegruson ahead of potentially expensive Marco Jansen. They are probably a domestic pacer short. 

They are 2.506/4 to make the top four on the Betfair exchange. They represent the best trade opportunity at 14.5027/2 and we're looking for them to come into at least 6.05/1.

Chennai, because of their superb home form (66% win rate), are the best option for a less lengthy trade. They have three of their first four games at home so the 5.905/1 could shorten up quickly. 

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part II: the contenders

IPL 2025 to finish bottom - Bumrah blow makes Mumbai a bet

It should stand to reason that the winner market should be reversed when it comes to the to finish bottom market. So Sunrisers Hyderabad and Chennai Super Kings should be considered least likely to finish bottom.

Perversely, though, the rag in the market is Mumbai Indians at [25/1]. Mumbai are the third-favourites for the title. Sunrisers are as short as 15/28.50 to finish last with Chennai 16/117.00.

With the odds making little sense, what about the possibility of Mumbai finishing bottom? It's not a huge leap considering they were stone-cold last in 2024. There are many reasons as to why they could be grubbing around the bottom instead of flying high again.

The most obvious is the fitness of Jasprit Bumrah, who has had a nasty back injury. Bumrah could be fit and firing but he won't be available for at least the first two games. Even with Bumrah playing 13 games and taking 20 wickets last term, Mumbai managed only four wins.

Their work in the auction was not eyecatching, apart from the capture of Trent Boult. They have invested in inexperienced overseas players in IPL such as Ryan Rickleton, Corbin Bosch, Mujeeb ur Rahman and Will Jacks. And at least one of Rickleton, Jacks and the Indian core of Tilak Varma and Suryakumar Yadav is going to have to bat out of position.

There's no guarantee that Mumbai will have a dreadful campaign. But equally there's no guarantee that Bumrah is fit enough to carry them again. The only thing we know for sure is that Mumbai should be much, much shorter to finish last. It's a wrong price predicated on the notion that Mumbai are too big to fail. Which is nonsense. They also finished last in 2022.

Another team taken to struggle is Lucknow Super Giants. Having spent a record amount on Rishabh Pant they look short in the opening berth and middle order. new recruits sch as Abdul Samad, a failure at Sunrisers, Shahbaz Ahmed, Aiden Markram and matt Breetzke do not excit.

Their biggest concernis in the pace department with bowlers injured or coming back from fitness problems. Their first-choice four haave had issues and Mayank yadav, a match-winner, is sidelined for the start of the tournament. Lucknow finished seventh last season and it could be they are the wekest team in the section. The 5/16.00 to finish bottom has appeal.

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