Indian Premier League Tips: The play-off hopefuls rated

Ed Hawkins
23 May 2022
3:00 min read

Buttler is value for top bat again

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Ed Hawkins analyses the four teams left standing and finds two wagers as the knockouts begin.

"At a boosted 11/4 against Gujarat in the qualifier we're more than happy to wager that he returns to his dominant best"

B(2pts) Back Jos Buttler top Royals bat v Gujarat 3.7511/4.

Gujarat Titans 2.407/5

Batting run rate rank: =5/10
Bowling run rate rank: 1
Verdict: The greatest threat to Gujarat is history. There is a bizarre statistical quirk, or jinx if we're going to be dramatic, which goes against the league winner of IPL. Only three times since 2011 (inception of the staggered play-off) has the team finishing first gone on to lift the trophy.

It's bonkers. Perhaps it is just a fluke. But it is a trend we have seen repeated in the Big Bash. What could it be about finishing as the best team over a grueling stage which counts against them when they have two chances to book a final spot? Perhaps there is greater pressure. Perhaps they have played fast and loose with their rhythm.

Gujarat don't appear to have done the latter. They are a crack bowling unit, cannily sensing an opportunity (or an edge) when others put more store in the batting. It would be a major surprise if they didn't at least make it to the showpiece.

Rajasthan Royals 2.707/4

Batting run rate rank: 1
Bowling run rate rank: =5
Verdict: The Royals should be the beneficiaries of the 'jinx'. Finishing as runners-up in the ladder is the recipe for success, putting a name on the trophy seven times. They are also Gujarat's opposite. They are the most powerful batting unit in the competition in terms of run rate.

Their bowling has been a worry consistently. However, they appear to have tightened up significantly. It could be that the wearing pitches made a previous weakness irrelevant. Or Obed McCoy has come in and revolutionised their approach. In their last two - against Chennai and Lucknow - they have conceded fewer than 155.

On a fresh pitch at Eden Gardens, they need to be proactive rather than reactive. But Jos Buttler could well roar back to the fore. He has drawn a blank on five consecutive top-bat bets, perhaps because the surfaces have got slower. At a boosted 11/4 against Gujarat in the qualifier we're more than happy to wager that he returns to his dominant best. Bet Bet here.

Lucknow Super Giants 6.005/1

Batting run rate rank: 4
Bowling run rate rank: =2
Verdict: Only once has the team finishing outside the top two won the title. Lucknow, and of course Bangalore, will need to win three straight matches for glory.

Lucknow appear to be better equipped. They have strong numbers behind them with bat and ball and the 1.9010/11 that they knock out Bangalore on Wednesday could well be one of the prices of the tournament. Bet Bet here. For the record they have winning streaks of three and four games respectively.

Like Rajasthan, their batters will enjoy fresh pitches to work with. KL Rahul remains a model of consistency while Quinton de Kock has managed to relive some of his reckless youth. If the South African can cut loose early on they will be hard to stop.

Royal Challengers Bangalore 6.005/1

Batting run rate rank: =9
Bowling run rate rank: =5
Verdict: What on earth are this motley crew doing here? Well, to be blunt they qualified only because of the most calamitous fielding displays ever seen in IPL history. And it's a competitive field. Delhi Capitals' performance against Mumbai Indians on Saturday was nothing short of a disgrace with Rishabh Pant shaming himself for ever more.

Bangalore have a leaky bowling line-up and a batting unit which scores runs quicker than only Chennai and Mumbai. On ability and form their campaign should be over and asking them to win three in a row at the top table feels cruel.

They have at least managed a threepeat this series. They have also beaten each of their fellow play-off hopefuls.

But those are about the only two reasons to be positive, particularly as Virat Kohli has now been given even more of a chance to eat up precious deliveries in the powerplay. Their wait for a first tile may only ever end when he is removed from the roster.