Indian Premier League Tips Matches 17 and 18: Back Chennai to beat disastrous Delhi

Click here for Punjab Kings v Sunrisers Hyderabad odds
Saturday 11 April, 11.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Sunrisers Hyderabad IPL Tips

There will be anticipation that this is a runsfest at New Chandigarh. Punjab are probably the most destructive, aggressive batting unit in the competition (although Rajasthan would have a shout) while Sunrisers know only one way to play and that is to hit.

The problem is the New Chandigarh surface. It might not be conducive. Historically it has been one of the lowest-scoring grounds and, despite Punjab coach Ricky Ponting sugggesting that it could be flatter this year, it didn't look like it in the first match.

Gujarat could only manage 162 and even Punjab struggled to get a shift on, requiring 19.1 overs to get the win. The run rate in all T20 is below eight. Filter the IPL and that goes up to 8.7. More than 175 has been busted only four times in 12. That stat could well be key when considering potentially giddy 20-over runs lines. 

Betfair Sportsbook offer under Punjab total match runs at 194.5 at 5/61.84. That has won 10 from 12. It is a bet which would be perceived as going against the tide of opinion. But that is probably why it is high. There is expectation that the batters dominate and are gung-ho. The psychology of such markets has always been to buy. But the data is crystal clear so we have to go the other way.

What is not unexpected is a Punjab win. They look the real deal and any shift into that 1.804/5 region pre-toss is to be snaffled. Their balance is superb and they bat deep. Sunrisers are a one-trick pony who have to have a road to be competitive. They still await the return of Pat Cummins, not that his T20 skill set suggests he will make a big difference.

If we are wrong about the surface and Sunrisers bat first and go well, we would be keen on Punjab to chase pretty much anything up to to 230. 

There are a trio of players awaiting their first tops market win having come into the season with strong numbers. Prab Singh is 16/54.20 for top Punjab bat, Abishkeh Sharma 11/43.75 for top SRHG, while Arshdeep Singh is overdue at 11/43.75 for most home wickets.

Click here for Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Capitals
Saturday 11 April, 15.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Chennai Super Kings v Delhi Capitals IPL Tips

Delhi Capitals should be basking in the glory of three straight wins. Unfortunately they have become another team to be suckered by the South African choke at the death of a big game. Who'd have thought it?

That's tongue in cheek. David Miller's failure to get his team over the line against Gujarat was nothing of the sort. He probably wishes it was a choke. It was brainless and nonsensical.

Needing two to win from two balls, Miller turned down an easy single to ensure Delhi at least escaped with a tie and turn around to a Super Over where his extraordinary hitting and eye would have made them favourites. He seemed to immediately be crushed by the pressure of the dumbest move most had ever seen and didn't even hit the last ball.

Debate has raged that Miller 'backed himself' to get the job done - one of those irritating buzz phrases that sportspeople like to trot out as an excuse for idiocy. But we're truly through the looking glass if social media cannot udnerstand that it is easier to score 1 off 1 ball instead of 2 off 1. The supposed sages who have come up with such a defence (Harsha Bhogle, who else?) make the cynics think it's all just smoke and mirrrors.

The upshot is that Delhi are hard to stomach at significant odds-on. Chennai have plenty of issues but maybe have a shout here so long as the price matures to around 2.305/4. 

It is arguable that CSK are three defeats from three because they have had the misfortune of playing the three best sides (Punjab, RCB and Royals) in the competiton. It's no disgrace losing to that trio. Most teams will. They just need to remember that so it doesn't impinge confidence.

Chennai should be boosted by the return of Dewald Brevis for this game. It gives them a more than useful top four with Sanju Samson and Ruturaj Gaikwad both overdue a score. Delhi could include Mitchell Starc for the first time. Balance could be an issue for them if they try to retain Lungi Ngidi. 

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