Indian Premier League

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals: Back improving Delhi to land another upset

Delhi Capitals opener David Warner
David Warner looks due a decent innings

Wednesday's game is critical for both sides in order to stay in touch. Paul Krishnamurty says Delhi are improving, under-rated and worth a trade...

  • Gujurat remain unconvincing

  • Fraser-McGurk a good addition for Delhi

  • Ahmedabad still conducive for big runs

  • Is Warner overdue?

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals
Wednesday 16 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals team news

Titans urgently need David Miller back from injury in order to shore up a fragile batting order. Previously Spencer Johnson suggested he would return for this game. Matthew Wade, who scored only four on his first outing of the season, seems likely to give way. The other overseas batter in contention would be Kane Williamson - who has also failed to cover himself in glory so far.

Probable XI: Gill, Sudharson, Shankar, Miller, Manohar, Tewatia, Sharukh Khan (sub), Rashid Khan, Ahmad, Yadav, Johnson, Sharma (sub)

Whilst Delhi remain outsiders for the tournament, they were boosted by a comfortable win over LSG last time, with the returning Kuldeep Yadav and newcomer Jake Fraser-McGurk playing starring roles. This batting line-up looks much stronger so assume no changes.

Probable XI: Shaw, Warner, Fraser-McGurk, Pant, Stubbs, Hope, Porel (sub), Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Mukesh Kumar, Ishant Sharma, Khaleel Ahmed (sub).

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals pitch report

In 2023, Ahmedabad was one of the most reliable grounds for runs. 56% of first innings produced 200+ totals and 22% were 220+. We are yet to see a 200 in three matches this term but 199 last time looked short and proved so. This is a big ground where plenty of twos are on offer but sixes not that frequent. Try 210 or more 1st Innings Runs at an expected 5.04/1.

Over the past five years, the 15 or More line in our Total Sixes market has landed 48% of the time. A fair return but notably less than smaller grounds such as Mumbai or Bangalore.

Back both teams to score 200 @ 9/25.50

Bet here

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals match odds

During their first two seasons in IPL, Gujurat were peerless during the group stages. Delhi meanwhile remain perennial strugglers. That might explain relatively one-sided match odds, with the hosts trading at 1.774/5.

That is too short for my liking. Titans kept their hopes in tact with an unlikely chase last time, led by Shubman Gill and reliant on a brilliant late cameo from Rashid Khan. But their batting weaknesses were clearly on show. Even assuming Miller returns, doubts persist and their bowling is inevitably much weaker without Mohammed Shami.

In contrast Delhi's form is not as bad as the betting indicates. Kuldeep's return was essential to what had been a very costly bowling unit. It is far from clear that Gujurat will exploit any weaknesses with the ball as effectively as the likes of Mumbai and Kolkata did previously.

Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals Exchange strategy

Bearing in mind that there is no great toss bias at Ahmedabad, 2.35/4 about Delhi looks a solid trade. Look to cash out if they shorten to around 1.42/5.

Also given the above stats regarding runs at Ahmedabad, we are probably overdue a 200+ score. This hasn't become a lower scoring ground overnight and the last pitch could easily have lived up to last year's reputation.

Both teams to score 200 is a 9/25.50 chance on the Sportsbook. That bet has landed in the last two games at similar odds and there's no reason to think it can't do so again. Yet again we are seeing the trend visible in T20 franchises around the world. Run totals continue to climb higher and higher as teams become ever more aggressive.

Back Delhi to win @ 2.35/4

Bet here

Back 210 or more 1st Innings Runs @ around 5.04/1

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Gujurat Titans v Delhi Capitals player bets

David Warner has generally been a standing dish for Delhi top bat honours and there's a temptation to back him at 13/53.60, but their line-up does look more competitive now.

It may make more sense, therefore, to take the 10/111.91 about him scoring Over 23.5 runs. This bet landed in his first three innings of the tournament but lost in the last three. I suspect he's due a good knock and Gujurat's new ball bowlers aren't particularly terrifying.

Back David Warner to score Over 23.5 runs @ 10/111.91

Bet here

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