Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indian IPL tips: MI overrated to avoid knockout blow

• MI hot favourites

• Buttler out for GT

• Rickleton and Jacks have left 

• Loser is knocked out

• Tilak worth the faith at 7/24.50

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians
Friday 30 May, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Gujarat are not the same side that finished third. Out goes Jos Buttler, leaving a whopping hole at the crucial No 3 slot. Is Kusal Mendis as good? Probably not. He had an average PSL with Quetta Gladiators. Whether he gets straight in ahead of the likes of Karim Janat and Dasun Shanaka who have been with the group longer remains to be seen.

Of more concern might be that GT have lost their bowling nous. They were hammered towards the end of the league stage. Just one more win would have guaranteed a top-two slot and therefore an easier route to the final. But they blew it. 

Kagiso Rabada has also departed and Gujarat decided to use Gerald Coetzee in the XI last time against Chennai.

Possible GT bat XI: Sai (Krishna sub), Gill, Kusal, Rutherford, Shahrukh, Tewatia, Rashid, Coetzee, Arshad, Kishore, Siraj

Mumbai have also lost key players and it could be argued that they have been hit harder than their rivals. Ryan Rickleton and Will Jacks have both departed. Again, their replacements may be considered underwhelming.

Jonny Bairstow has never cracked this tournament while Sri Lankan Charith Asalanka, given his record, is something of a left-field batting pick. It could be that Bevon Jacobs, the Kiwi domestic batter born in SA, gets a game as he has been there from the start.

Possible MI bat XI: Rohit (Karn Sharma sub), Bairstow, Suryakumar, Tilak, Jacobs, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Chahar, Boult, Bumrah

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

The Punjab-RCB contest suggested bowler's dream. Punjab's 111 all out was a surprise but histroically there were signs that ball held sway over bat. Previous to that match there had been only nine games played in IPL at the venue and from that weightier study sample it seemed that bowlers are bang in the game. The run rate was 8.57 and more than 183 has been busted only three times.  A par line for sellers in the 180s may be too high. 

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL match prediction

It has been a feature of this IPL (more than most years) that the market has been desperate to get with Mumbai. In matches and the outright they have been prohibitively short. That they finished fourth, meaning they need to win three in a row for the glory, suggests that the obsession has been misguided.

The mania continues for a contest between two well-matched teams. The billboard stars of Mumbai are as skinny as 1.625/8 with Gujarat 2.6213/8. There is no evidence whatsoever that Mumbai are as good as those odds suggest or that the gulf between the two is correct. This looks like a choice affair.

If you think you've heard this sort of schtick before, you'd be right. We made similar noises on these pages when GT played MI twice in the league stage. And won on each occasion. It is clear they are value again.

Gujarat Titans v Mumbai Indians IPL player bets

Tilak Varma is in the win zone for top MI bat. He had a decent knock against Gujarat previously, notching 39 from 36. He batted at No 3 in that match and it could be that because of player churn he moves up at least one position. We know he is overdue on how often he wins and having betted him last time it would be unwise to suddenly abandon an immensely talented player. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50. 

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