Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals IPL Tips: Back Capitals to get back on track

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Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals
Wednesday 16 April, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals IPL team news

Delhi Capitals' will be ruing the collective loss of concentration which cost them victory against a poor Mumbai Indians team. They were bossing a chase of 205 throughout, even after losing KL Rahul sixth down in the 16th. At the death, Ashutosh Sharma looked set to get them home before a chaotic hat-trick of runouts handed MI the win. 

It wasn't smart cricket. But the clue was there at the start when DC decided to chase despite a bias for the side defending in the last year. It's not smart either to persist with Jake Fraser-McGurk who is stinking the place out. If Faf Du Plessis is fit he should replace him.

Possible Delhi XI: Porel, Du Plessis, Nair, (Mukesh sub), Rahul, Axar, Stubbs,, Ashutsoh, Vipraj, Kuldeep, Starc, Mohit

Rajasthan Royals were outclassed by RCB last time out and the season could now start to drag. They were never really in the game with bat or ball. At least they have a settled unit, although that is more down to a lack of depth. With the bat, for example, there are no genuine options to improve them.

With the ball they have been pricey and are actually faring worse in terms of economy at the same stage as last season.

Possible RR XI:  Jaiswal, Samson, Parag, Jurel, Hetmyer, Rana (Kartikeya), Hasaranga, Archer, Theekshana, Sandeep, Deshpande

Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals IPL pitch report

The last six matches at Delhi have all been won by the team batting first. But it might not be the road we saw last season when all five busted 200. True, MI did the same but DC's decision to bowl first suggested there is more in this wicket. The 20-over par line may agree with unders potentially coming in at low 190s.

The sixes line moved from overs 16.5 to 18.5 pre-toss for the MI game. It remains at the latter, which was a loser in the opener. We managed to get on at 16.5 but won't play this time as this pitch now has a watching brief.

Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals match prediction

Delhi could be about to have a mid-season wobble but there's a decent chunk of evidence that they should be shorter than 1.814/5 to take down the Royals and get back to winning ways.

Indeed, the numbers on DC are strong. Dan Weston, an analyst who has worked in IPL, has them as the second-strongest in the league from historic data from the best performers. By contrast, Royals are the second-worst, just in front of Sunrisers.

The status quo, then, should really hold for this one. We respect the toss bias but given that Delhi perhaps took their eye off the ball in the chase against MI, we're not convinced that the flip going against them here should be a big issue.

Delhi Capitals v Rajasthan Royals player bets

There are three players who are overdue a strong performance according to win rates in the last two years. First up it's Sanju Samson for Royals, who goes off at 11/43.75 for top Royals bat. Samson is yet to win this season despite no signs of any issue with form or temperament. He has actually looked in decent touch on occassion despite starting off with a finger injury.

Samson is in the win zone and Sportsbook clearly expect him to deliver at the odds. He will face competition from Riyan Parag, however, who actually performed better on win rates. He started the season at 27%. Sportsbook offer 4/15.00.

On the match-ups, Samson has an expected runs per innings of 43, pipping Parag by four runs. Is that a big enough gulf in odds? Maybe not and Parag's bigger edge on wins versus price may make him the smart choice.

Mohit Sharma has zero wins on top bowler so far. He still looks to be the same bowler and is getting an opportunity for cheap wickets at the death. He's much better than a 5/16.00 chance as a two-year win rate at the start of the season of 28% suggests. 

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