Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Sixes blitz incoming on small ground

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians
Sunday 30 March, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Delhi Capitals' have a 100% record from four matches. They outclassed RCB last time out, restricting them to 167 despite a blitz from Phil Salt at the start. 

Their winning record has meant they have not looked too closely at how to improve their line-up. But surely after another failure with the bat Jake Fraser-McGurk comes out? They could use Donovan Ferreira as a finisher and move Abhishek Porel up to open with Faf Du Plessis.

Possible Delhi XI: Porel, Du Plessis, Rahul, Axar, Stubbs, Ferreira, Ashutsoh (Mukesh sub), Vipraj, Kuldeep, Starc, Mohit

Mumbai Indians have Jasprit Bumrah fit again and in just the nick of time, too. With four defeats in five they will need a minimum of six wins from their last nine to stand a chance of the play-offs. Fortunately their net run rate is not in disastrous shape so they could squeeze in.

Their selection has been inconsistent. Naman Dhir, dangerous at No 3, was shunted down to the lower order against RCB with Will Jacks brought back in. Roles need to be settled at this point. 

Possible MI XI: Rohit, Rickleton, Jacks, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Dhir, Santner, Chahar, Boult, Bumrah

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians IPL pitch report

The last five matches at Delhi have all been won by the team batting first. That's a hint that this is a road. The full facts are that in all of those matches 200 was busted in first dig. We would expect a par line in the low 200s and that would warrant a bet at overs. We're not playing Sportsbook's 10/111.91 that both teams score 200. Why bother at worse odds? We only need the team batting first to go well for an even-money win.

Sportsbook offer 4/51.80 that 16.5 sixes are busted. This is the No 1-ranked venue for sixes. There was an average of 27 last season per game. The boundaries are small here so even mishits are going for maximums. We're surprised the line is not 20.5.

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians match prediction

There is no justification whatsoever for Delhi being outsiders against Mumbai. It is the historic bias for the billboard players that Mumbai boast. Newsflash: they don't win them enough games.

Delhi are the best side in the tournament on form at the moment. Mumbai one of the worst. The odds should be the other way round. And the market can't even point to the Bumrah factor. MI were terrible last season with him.

Chuck in the toss bias and Delhi batting first, confident and on a flat surface and they should steal the points. MI have been very poor chasing. 

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians Exchange strategy

This is such a good batting wicket that the trade strategy is obvious. The team batting first should be short favourites by the break. That could see MI as low as 1.402/5 from their starting position. Naturally given the bigger chunk on DC (who are reliable) we're hoping they bat first and then stealing a few more with their ability to pinch out a couple early on through Mitchell Starc's express pace.

Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians player bets

Bumrah looked a little rusty in his first run out since his lay off. He should be better for the run and having had training time. Although wicketless, his economy was good and it may be that he gets a top bowler win on fewest runs conceded. Sportsbook offer 5/23.50 which is impled probability of 28%. That's bang on his two-year win rate. 

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