Paul Krishnamurty previews tomorrow's bottom-of-the-table clash, arguing that Delhi Capitals are likelier to emerge from their slump than Mumbai, and to take on the latter's bowlers...
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Both sides still looking for first point
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Mumbai bowlers there for the taking
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Back big Delhi runs and sixes
Delhi Capitals v Mumbai Indians
Tuesday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
Two of the biggest franchises in IPL seek to end a nightmare start to their season. Delhi have lost three from three, Mumbai two from two. None of those five matches were even vaguely close.
Classy Capitals batsmen underperforming
Delhi underachieved with the bat each time. Twice they failed to reach 150 when chasing big targets and, when batting first on this ground, their 162 was at least ten below par.
No doubt their plans have been wrecked by Rishabh Pant's injury. Only David Warner has performed with the bat and even then, at a slow strike-rate, holding the innings together. Pritvhi Shaw and Mitchell Marsh will be bitterly disappointed with their efforts so far. Delhi have also been profligate with the ball.
Mumbai problems may run deeper
Similar comments apply to Mumbai. Thrashed twice, top order failed twice, extremely profligate with the ball. Only one batsman, Tilak Varma, emerged with any credit from these opening exchanges.
Whilst neither side looks like competing for the play-offs, I would much prefer to be on Delhi as the season progresses. I expect those top order batsmen to thrive at some point, as well as Rilee Roussow, Rovman Powell and Axar Patel from a strong middle. In Anrich Nortje and Kuldeep Yadav, they have gun bowlers with plenty in reserve. Potentially, this is a strong, balanced squad.
The same cannot be said of Mumbai, whose bowling looks very weak for this level after losing Jasprit Bumrah for the season. Jofra Archer has already been left out once, citing pain in the opening match, and will be used sparingly. I simply don't see top-class back-up in this squad, nor spinners.
As those views indicate, I would not have Delhi as the outsiders here. If you don't mind betting pre-toss, 2.14 about the hosts makes some appeal. However that is very risky given the importance of the toss at the Arun Jaitley Stadium. Chasing sides enjoy a 62/38% advantage over the past five years.
Big scores at this Delhi track are not especially frequent, but they are always very possible due to small boundaries. This Mumbai bowling attack looks extremely vulnerable and I reckon they will concede at least one score way beyond 200. We see frequently how 230/240 is possible nowadays - these lines will be available at odds in excess of 30/1 and 50/1.
If Delhi bat first, my plan is to back a few lines - try 200, 210 and 225 or More 1st Innings Runs.
Another - more speculative but less risky - way to back Delhi is via the Winning Margin market. For example, a victory by five wickets or 41-50 runs is 11/1. By six wickets or 51-60 is 14/1.
In addition to those more speculative plans of attack, I recommend a confident bet on Delhi to hit Over 6.5 Sixes. Mumbai conceded 13 maximums in 16 overs against RCB on a small ground, and I just can't see their weak attack containing sides. Sure Delhi have failed but there is no shortage of power in their ranks and this match (and ground) is an opportunity to turn things around.
Finally, today's #OddsBoost batsmen are Rohit Sharma and David Warner, boosted to 7/2 and 11/4 respectively. Warner is bidding for four straight wins in this market.
*Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty