Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Mumbai set for another slow start

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Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians
Sunday 23 March, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL team news

Chennai Super Kings are fancied to take the title this season. But whether they have added enough batting power remains to be seen. Can Devon Conway return to form? Is Rachin Ravindra a T20 player of note? Signings like Rahul Tripathi and Vijay Shankar do not convince.

They are very strong with the ball. They were the most economical team in the field last season. Mukesh Choudhary could be used as an impact player with the ball, Shankar with the bat. 

Possible CSK XI: Gaikwad, Conway, Ravindra, Dube, Tripathi, S Curran, Jadeja, Dhoni, Ashwin, Khaleel, Pathirana

Mumbai Indians are without Jasprit Bumrah as their bid to haul themselves out of the doldrums has been hit before it has started. MI finished bottom last season even with Bumrah carrying their attack.

They also have a conundrum with the bat. One of Will Jacks, Ryan Rickleton, Tilak Varma or Skip Suryakumar Yadav may have to bat out of position. Jacks might get the nod to open because he has IPL experience whereas Rickleton doesn't. With Bumrah out, it's possible Reece Topley plays with Robin Minz, an exciting young hitter used in the middle order.

Possible MI XI:  Rohit, Jacks, Tilak, Sky, Minz, Dhir, Hardik, Santner, Deepak, Boult, Topley

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians pitch report

Shorting runs at the Chepauk is often a favourite wager but we wait for more traffic on this surface. It's actually not been too bad in the early rounds. There were 170s and 200s in the first two games last season. Likewise for 2023. So we note the boosted 13/82.63 that Chennai win the game and both teams score 160 from Sportsbook. The par line certainly seems to be alive to the prospect of runs, high at overs for 179.5. 

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians match prediction

The nod to that Sportsbook special was a hint as to our views on what happens in Chepauk: Chennai are favoured. They win 66% of the time at home and are perfectly set up to exploit a surface which spins. 

Chennai also have the wood over Mumbai, winning five of the last six head-to-heads. On their last visit MI could only manage 139. It might not be as easy this time for CSK but few would be surprised if MI produced a sluggish start. CSK are 1.875/6 and that's not a bad bet. They should be bang at it from ball one while MI's prep has been disrupted.

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians Exchange strategy

Trent Boult is the master of a wicket in his first over. He managed it an incredible seven times in IPL 2024. There's an option to gamble on MI's price collapsing in the event that he manages it again. Another option is the 6/52.20 that MI have the highest opening partnership. That's a market to keep an eye on and it may be that this is one of the few games that they are odds-against. 

Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians player bets

Top CSK bat is a conundrum. Do we go with Ruturaj Gaikwad (31% win rate in 29 games) or Conway (46% in 15)? Or maybe neither because of the Boult threat. The greatest edge is with Conway at 3/14.00. For MI, we have to point out a price on Will Jacks at 6/17.00 because he could well open. Sky Yadav is a smidge of value at 10/34.33 but it is a worry we don't know where he's going to bat. 

With the ball, Matheesha Pathirana wins 38% of the time and Sportsbook offer 13/53.60 (implied probability of 29%) so we have to play. Do be aware that Pathirana will likely have to come from behind to win, so to speak, because he will bowl at the death. 

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