Sri Lanka v India Third ODI Tips: All Gill no fill at 10/3

• RPS toss bias remains key stat

• Possibly ninespinners in action

• Liyanage too big at 17/2

• Gill still good option at 10/3

Sri Lanka v India
Wednesday 7 August, 10:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v India Third ODI team news

Sri Lanka used six bowlers against India in victory in game two, five of them were spinners. None of them were Wanindu Hasaranga, who has a hamstring injury. They didn't miss him as 240 was defended.

It would be a surprise if the XI changed as a result. That means no room for Theekshana with Jeffrey Vandersay's spin preferred. The only tinkering could be in batting order with Kamindu Mendis possessing the ability to bat higher up.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Avishka, Asalanka, Samarawaickrama, Liyanage, Wellalage, Kamindu, Vandersay, Asitha

India could match Sri Lanka for spin options by utilising only one of the two pace options - Mohammed Siraj and Arshdeep Singh. It would also lengthen their batting, which doesn't look a bad idea after they were bowled out for 208 and they were forced to use Rohit Sharma as a tweaker.

Riyan Parag is an option who would make sense. Maybe they should resist the temptation to drop Shivam Dube. His spin hitting and medium-pace could be the variety option.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Parag, Shreyas, Rahul, Dube, Axar, Sundar, Kuldeep, Siraj

Sri Lanka v India Third ODI pitch report

At the start of the series there was a 60% toss bias underlights at the RPS (114 matches). With Sri Lanka defending 230 for a tie and then winning with 240 on the board it is a trend which should not be ignored. A score of 240-260 will be the target batting first so any par line at the top end of that is a short.

Sri Lanka v India Third ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are 3.90 to seal the series with India 1.331/3. That's a light cut from 4.2016/5 from game two.

It is doubtful as to whether the match odds market are factoring in the toss bias and we don't expect a huge shift if the flip goes the way of the home team.

Sri Lanka v India Third ODI Exchange strategy

Sri Lanka have a poor overall record against India but in this white-ball series the surfaces have been a great leveller. In all three of the T20 matches Sri Lanka were a reliable trade. In two of them they got it down to a choice affair.

That ability to make it an even contest is realiable again here if they bat first. Add 50% to the original stake on the lay button at 2.001/1 for the back-to-lay.

If India were to bat first and struggled to anything in that 170-240 region we would be betting them at better odds for the toss bias to come to their rescue.

Sri Lanka v India Third ODI player bets

Janith Liyanage has three wins in 11 and with low scores winning the top bat market it seems only right that we retain faith, particularly as he is as big as 17/29.50. Shubman Gill gives us a small edge on win rate at 10/34.33 and he has a semblance of form. Virat Kohli is not win rate value at 3/14.00. It's tempting to start betting on spin but, to be frank, with eight, possibly nine, to choose from it becomes tricky.

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