Sri Lanka v India First ODI Tips: Can toss bias trouble India?

• RPS has 60% toss bias in play

• Injuries hit Sri Lanka bowling

• Kohli and Rohit back

• Liyanage and Siraj players to follow

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Sri Lanka v India
Tuesday 29 July, 14:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v India First ODI team news

Sri Lanka team news always comes with a warning. We can pick what should be their best XI, but there is no gurantee that the powers-that-be also make rational calls. Witness Bhanuka Rajapaksa not even being included in the T20 squad and then Avishka Fernando being unused.

Avishka should play here but injuries have hit the camp hard with Dilshan Madushanka, easily their most potent bowler in the last two years, and the dangerous Matheesha Pathirana both ruled out with injury. Nuwan Thushara and Dushmanth Chameera were already non-runners so they are down to the bare bones with the ball.

Mohamed Shiraz and Eshan Malinga, both uncapped right-arm seamers, have been added to the group. One looks certain to play if Sri Lanka decide to pick bits-and-pieces players like Akila Dhananjaya or Chamika Karunaratne. Not a fun start for new skip Charith Asalanka, who takes over from Kusal Mendis.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Avishka, Asalanka, Samarawaickrama, Liyanage, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana, Wellalage, Shiraz/Ehsan

Two of threeof India's big guns are back. Rohit Sharma returns to lead his team while Virat Kohli is likely to slot back in to the No 3 role with Shreyas Iyer missing out. There is no Jasprit Bumrah.

India may be likely to stick with the bowling combination that worked well in the T20 series which they won 3-0. So two frontline pacers supported by a pace-off all-rounder and then spinners. There is no Hardik Pandya so Shivam Dube may be asked to play his role.

Mohammaed Siraj and Arshdeep will remain as attack leaders but don't be surprised if Harshit Rana or Khaleel Ahmed come in for the latter later on in the series if it is won. To add batting depth Riyan Parag could get the nod ahead of Washington Sundar.

Possible XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Rahul, Pant, Dube, Axar, Parag/Sundar, Kuldeep, Arshdeep, Siraj

Sri Lanka v India First ODI pitch report

There is a 60% toss bias for the team batting first in day-night matches at the RPS. That is a trend which is hard to ignore. And it's over a study period of 114 matches. We don't expect big runs. Only two sides (one of them India in 2023 against Pakistan) has scored more than 300 batting first.

Sri Lanka were razed for 50 against India on this ground last year. They were also bowled out for 73 and 55 against India in 2023. Shorting their runs, then, at the extremes at cheap numbers on first-innings is an obvious strategy. At 240-250 you may pay evens for those who want something more accessible. Forecast thunderstorms could cost the game overs. The innings runs market will be settled if 20 overs are bowled.

Sri Lanka v India First ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are 4.707/2 with India 1.261/4. That is a big gap between the sides and one that has widened after the news about injuries to two key bowlers for Sri Lanka.

Those horrible batting collapses against India will not have aided Sri lanka's cause in the market, either. It's now ten straight defeats in all formats against India.

And yet we have a whopping toss bias in-play for this game. Should Sri Lanka be as big batting first? Probably not. We don't expect the odds to shift much - if at all - if it goes their way. It's a relatively simple case to be made that they should be a little skinnier.

Sri Lanka v India First ODI Exchange strategy

Three times in the T20 series Sri Lanka's batters were bossing the game, collapsing their odds and putting them on course for victory. And three times they were beaten. The third game was the toughest of all as they a miniscule price in-play only to end up with a Super Over loss after a tie. There's a clue there.

Instead of relying Sri Lanka to bat first and complete the job with the toss bias in favour, a basic strategy is to expect a strong show with the willow with the toss bias in their favour. We could well see them trade at close to a choice affair if they nipped out a couple of India batters early.

But just planinng for a two-point shift down and then putting an extra 50% of the original stake on the lay button will be for decent returns.

Sri Lanka v India First ODI player bets

Kohli is 11/43.75 for a top India bat win but with a 23% win rate in the last 12 months with a chunky study sample in our favour is not a bet. Rohit Sharma and Shubman Gill, however, both fit the bill. They have 28% win rates. Rohit is 3/14.00 and Gill 3/14.00. The player we are keen on is Sri Lanka's emerging middle-order talent Janith Liyanage. He has three wins in nine and is a little toppy at 8/19.00 with Sportsbook. With the ball, Siraj has an ace record against Sri Lanka and we had him pencilled in as favourite instead of 3/14.00.

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