India v West Indies First Test Tips: Sai solid for runs with Windies up against it

• India expected to dominate

• But trading the Windies at massive odds on Betfair Exchange could be profitable
• Ed has a betting strategy on how to play visitors' runs

• Pitch may not be spin heavy

• Milestone betting for India bats

India v West Indies
Thursday 2 October, 05.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v West Indies First Test team news

India have suffered an early blow with Rachin Ravindra a doubt for game one after the all-rounder crashed into advertising hoardings in training. For India the question will, as usual, be whether to go with spin or seam for a home Test. Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj look certain to play regardless but they will either be supported by extra pace or an army of spinners.

If the Ahmedabad surface is one for the quicks, and early suggestions are that it is, Ntish Kumar Reddy and Prasidh Krishna may be added to the XI with onyl two slots realistically up for grabs. If not, then Kuldeep Yadav and Axar Patel are likely to be deployed. Washington Sundar and Ravi Jadeja are shoo-ins. 

Sai Sudharsan should be in at first drop which is fair. He deserves a run in the side after an in-out tour of England.

Possible India XI: Jaiswal, Rahul, Sai, Gill, Durel, Jadeja, Reddy, Sundar, Bumrah, Siraj, Prasidh

West Indies have lost Alzarri Joseph and Shamar Joseph to injury, which could be a reason as to why India do not fear a potential green surface. The hosts are looking to exploit a lack of pace-bowling resources.

In the absence of those two key players, Jayden Seales will be attack leader. He should be joined by Anderson Phillip and left-armer Jediah Blades. Phillip has played only three Tests and Blades none. 

There is no Kraigg Brathwaite and the batting looks weak. What Kavem Hodge has done wrong is anyone's guess. Not so long ago he looked capable of holding innings together on his own.

Possible West indies XI: King, Anderson, Athanzae, Campbell, Chase, Hope, Greaves, Warrican, Seales, Phillip, Blades

India v West Indies First Test pitch report

Reports from Ahmedabad are that a good covering of grass has been left on the surface, which is made up of red soil. The black or red question at Ahmedabad is always interesting. The former denotes runs, the latter spin. But grass being left on suggests India are trying to avoid early turn.

Wary after a 3-0 reverse at home against New Zealand, India are trying to keep all options on the table. Regardeless whether Windies face a trial by pace or spin, shorting their runs will be popular. By filtering their first-innings scores against the established Test nations (ignoring Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe), they have an average runs per wicket of 24 in the last four years.

A par line of around 240 may well be bang on and if we can plays unders at even money we will. But it is a good number to remember in-play. Any semblance of a partnership for West Indies and we will have our fingers poised over the lay button. There could also be a chance for cheap lays at 150 or more. This has come off five times in their last 13.

There has been some rain around the region and more could arrive on day one. But this may only prove to make batting even trickier for West Indies. 

India v West Indies First Test match prediction

India are just 1.091/11 for the win on the Betfair Exchange with the draw 15.014/1 and West Indies a massive 50.049/1. It's a monster number about the visitors, particularly after they were as skinny as 8.007/1 on an early show.

Of course there is a significant gulf in class here and India really should win comfortably. But it is also fair to say that although limited and poorly balanced, West Indies are not total no-hopers on a pitch which could keep them keen. Had this been a straight-up red-soil bunsen burner then the odds might make more sense.

A trade on the Windies, then, is a fair way to play. A foothold in the game may not be beyond them and at such odds they don't need to be in it for long. Even cutting the odds by half and doubling the original stake on the lay makes for straightforward returns regardelss of the result. 

India v West Indies First Test player bets

It may make sense to focus on milestone betting when it comes to the player markets and specfically India's. There is a chance that batting could be difficult for India early on with a new ball but once things settles down they really should have the quality to make hay against a limited attack. So prices for a first-innings 50 for Yas Jaiswal, Shubman Gill, KL Rahul and Sai are all very solid options at 5/42.25, 5/42.25, 6/4] and 7/42.75 respectively. We will put up Sai as the bet at the biggest of the odds. he is a terrific player and knows the pitch well having played there for Titans in IPL. 

For West Indies top bat Justin Greaves sticks out at 8/19.00 while we were hoping for bigger on Jomel Warrican at 25s. Warrican has one win in the last two years and came close on two other outings. 

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