India v New Zealand Second Test Tips: Kiwis to fail trial by spin

Thursday 24th October 05:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

India v New Zealand Second Test team news

Despite defeat in the first Test, India are expected to name an unchanged XI. That means they go again with a three-pronged spin attack of Ravi Ashwin, Ravi Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav.

Sarfaraz Khan, with 150 in the second dig, looks to have made the No 4 slot his own. It will be interesting to see whether Virat Kohli is happy to continue at No 3.

When Sarfaraz and Rishabh Pant were together at 408 for four in the third, India had a sniff of an unlikely comeback. The 46 all out in the first can probably be dismissed as a total freak. One suspects india are ready to roar back.

Probable India XI: Rohit, Jaiswal, Kohli, Sarfarz, Pant, Rahul, Jadeja, Ashwin, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Siraj

New Zealand are still without Kane Williamson, their best batter. but they have a more pressing selection issue. Given that the Pune pitch is expected to spin, do they find room for an extra spinner?

The Kiwis' route to victory was ploughed by seam and swing pair Matt henry and Will O'Rourke. Tim Southee bowled dry in both innings. They surely won't need all three pacers again in what will be starkly different conditions.

Instead, it could be that Southee steps out so that Ish Sodhi, a specialist, can form a partnership with Ajaz Patel. Mitch Santner is another option and would lengthen the batting.

It could be that the Kiwis stick with the same XI, reckoning that the spin of Rachin Ravindra and Glenn Phillips can prove useful.

Possible New Zealand XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Santner/Sodhi, Henry, O'Rourke, Ajaz

India v New Zealand Second Test pitch report

No rain is forecast so a home from home for New Zealand is ruled out. They will probably not get conditions like they did in Bengaluru in India again for another 36 years, which was the gap since their last win. The Pune surface has black soil. This means slow, lower bounce. But it will spin. Of that there is a guarantee. In the first two digs it should be okay for batting before taking significant wear and tear. We do fear for the Kiwis here and are lining up a bet of a low second-innings runs total with the home spinners warming to their task.

The market can often underestimate how hard batting in the third and fourth innings can be. In India in the last three years, only nine teams in 28 all-out totals have made more than 253. The average score is 208. We should be able to short the Kiwis at around 250 for even money.

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India v New Zealand Second Test match prediction

New Zealand have poked the bear and they could be about to feel its wrath. Their price, though, has collapsed from 17.016/1 before the toss in Bengaluru to just 6.05/1. India are fast approaching value.

They are currently 1.374/11 and any foothold for the Kiwis in the first two innings which saw India's price rise to 1.705/7 levels should be seen as an opportunity to make profit.

Make no mistake that India will make sure that the Pune surface is a turner. And we all know that India are brilliant at making home advantage count. This could even be an early finish and we will keep an eye on the Betfair Exchange for a home win inside three days.

India's fight after being rolled for 46 impressed and they were another hour of Sarfaraz and Pant in making a strong bid for an unlikely comeback. New Zealand's 2-0 humbling in Sri Lanka a few weeks back is the bigger form pointer.

India v New Zealand Second Test player bets

There are a chunk of prices to get stuck into for this one. First stop is runs for Virat Kohli. The 7/24.50 that he top scores in first-innings is a value bet on how often he wins in the last two years (28%). The 254 he made against South Africa on his last visit to Pune is a good omen. But it is also a warning. It could be that the surface is so flat first up that a top-bat pick could get beaten even with a decent ton. Playing safe, then, with the 11/82.38 that he scores a first-innings half-century could be the way to go.

For turners in India it is de rigeur to consider Ashwin and Jadeja man of the match value at 7/18.00 and 15/28.50 respectively. Jadeja has an incredible ten wins in 74 Tests and Ashwin ten in 102.

For the Kiwis we are keen on Glenn Phillips to turn the screw. He is value across top-bat and bowler markets in both innings. And we''ll certainly be betting him. The 17/29.50 that he top scores is a price worth snaffling first and second, although we do not he could go off a bit shorter second time around at 6/17.00.

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