India v New Zealand First Test Tips: Bet against the rain in Bengaluru

Wednesday 16th October 05:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

India v New Zealand First Test team news

India have often favoured three spinners at home. But they abandoned that ploy against Bangladesh and poor weather in Bengaluru suggests they will do so again.

That means Kuldeep Yadav is likely to miss out with Akash Deep part of a three-pronged pace attack alongside Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammad Siraj.

Shubman Gill, who has one win in 16 on top first-innings bat, is under a bit of pressure at number three and there is some talk that Sarfaraz Khan could come in. Big guns Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Ravi Jadeja and Ravi Ashwin are all available.

Probable India XI: Rohit, Jaiswal, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Jadeja, Ashwin, Bumrah, Siraj, Deep

New Zealand are without Kane Williamson, their best batter. Preparation, then, has not been ideal. A 2-0 reverse in Sri Lanka in September suggests this is a tough ask.

There are worries about the form of Tom Latham, who is skip again, and Daryl Mitchell. The Kiwis will also wrestle with their bowling combination and one suspects an opportunity to go with seam and swing will not be turned down. Matt Henry and Will O'Rourke are an exciting combo. That could mean one from Mitch Santner and Ajaz Patel being left out.

Glenn Phillips, probably the best pound-for-pound cricketer in the world, will be key with his lower-order batting and useful spin.

Possible New Zealand XI: Latham, Conway, Young, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Southee, Henry, O'Rourke, Ajaz

India v New Zealand First Test pitch report

There has been rain in Bangalore and more is forecast. The pitch has been sweating under covers and if 70% chance of rain is correct for the first two days then it is a surface which could well help the pacers more than the spinners.

There has been only one Test in the last five years at the venue. That was low-scoring due to spin (26 of 39 wickets). Shorting runs lines appears to be the best way to go with New Zealand sticking out at around the 320 mark.

Only five times in their last 13 in Asia have they busted that mark. That tells a story more about alien conditions. But with swing present it could be double jeopardy.

India v New Zealand First Test match prediction

The draw price is shortening quickly. Into 1.444/9 from 1.664/6 overnight, it keeps on heading south. That is due to more people being aware of a forecast which makes play look highly unlikely on the first two days.

For the rest of the Test there is a 30-40% chance of rain. So can India put time back in this Test? They were gung-ho against Bangladesh to get a win in the face of the weather but this is a tougher prospect.

There is also the case that the Kiwis could be underrated in potentialy home-style conditions. They have drifted to as big as 20.019/1. India are now 3.8014/5.

Punters should not overstate a weather forecast. There have been worse and results have still been possible. We do know that drainage at Bengaluru is good and playing time can be extended.

A trade of the Kiwis, at probably even bigger numbers, or a bet on India at more than 4.003/1 are not dreadful options. But laying the draw at around the 1.351/3 mark with rain falling on the first two days keeps both teams onside.

India v New Zealand First Test player bets

The first thing to say about the player markets is that we need 50 overs for bets to stand. Our first port of call is taking the 4/15.00 that Virat Kohli manages a top bat win. His win rate in the last two years is 30% so a 10% swing in our favour about a technician as good as Kohli is hard to ignore.

For the Kiwis, Latham is having a struggle and his runs are worthy of a short at 23.5. He has come under that mark in seven of his last 10 in Asia and he had a struggle in Sri Lanka. For top bat, Glenn Phillips is underrated on win rate at 8.808/1 and it could be that 50-odd wins this market.

With the ball, Matt Henry is 3/14.00 for top Kiwi. In his last eight, he has four wins. The study sample is not great but it suggests he should be a little skinnier.

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