India v England Third ODI Tips: Bet on a fast start for dominant hosts

India v England
Wednesday 12 February, 08:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

India v England Third ODI SuperBoost 

Betfair are giving you a SuperBoost for the final ODI between India and England and it's a cracker!

You can get even money on Joe Root and Harry Brook hitting seven or more boundaries in the clash. The pair hit 10 last time out.

Instead of 4/61.67 you can get evens on the bet. T&Cs apply. 

Listen to the latest Cricket...Only Bettor podcast for more cricket tips

India v England Third ODI team news

The good news for England is that Jasprit Bumrah, the best fast bowler in the world, is not available for selection. Bumrah is in Bengaluru for a scan on his back and had been pencilled in to return for this game.

With the series won, India may look to test bench strength. Rohit Sharma or Shubman Gill could be rested for Yas Jaiswal in the opening slot, Rishab Pant could come in for KL Rahul and Washington Sundar for Axar Patel, Ravi Jadeja or Hardik Pandya. Arshdeep Singh and Kuldeep Yadav are also in line for a start.

Possible India XI: Rohit/Gill, Jaiswal, Kohli, Shreyas, Pant, Axar, Sundar, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Harshit, Arshdeep

England have called up Tom Banton to replace the injured Jacob Bethell. It is not a like-for-like replacement in the least. Liam Dawson would have made more sense but Banton was just round the corner presumably in UAE.

England have issues with their all-rounder slots. When Bethell was fit he was batting at No 6 but not really trusted with the ball. With Jamie Overton at No 7 and Gus Atkinson at No 8 last time, England lack firepower. If Banton plays, they might solve that issue with Livingstone at No 7. But they then have only five bowlers.

Possible England XI: Salt, Ducket, Root, Brook, Buttler, Banton, Livingstone, J Overton, Atkinson, Rashid, Wood/Archer/Mahmood

India v England Third ODI pitch report

There have been 20 day-night matches at Ahmedabad with 12 won by the chaser. Eight of those matches, however, were at the rebuilt Motera stadium. Five of those were won by the chasers.

It's not a big enough study sample to consider it a trend, however. We note the gap in run rate for teams batting second, which is 5.5 to 4.9. 

The highest score in those eight games was Australia's 286 against England in the World Cup, which they defended. Five times going under 250 first-innings runs would have been a winner.

One of those was the World Cup final, won by Australia after chasing 240 with ease. There's no evidence this is going to be a raging turner, hence Australia's dismissal of Kuldeep and Jadeja in that showpiece. Given the stats, and England's penchant for collapse, under 275 first-innings runs might be an option in-play.

India v England Third ODI match prediction

Throughout the white-ball series we have said that England need some assistance from outside factors such as a pitch or a toss bias. Perhaps they get it here in the form of India taking their eye off the prize of a whitewash.

But it is a pretty damning indictment of a team that they only become a competitive option at the odds if the opposition are considered to be resting on their laurels.

It is probably a forlorn hope for the English. With fringe players getting the chance to impress for the hosts can India really be less threatening? A beaten and low-on-confidence England remain vulnerable.

In terms of the forthcoming Champions Trophy India have shown themselves to the vastly superior while England, as discussed at length here, may struggle to get out of the group.

As in Cuttack, the only way to consider England a play is to trade their price on the Betfair Exchange if batting first. But timing is crucial. England really should have posted a monster score at the Barabati on a flat one but failed to really put down the hammer. They might be capable of an odds shift from 2.9015/8 to 2.206/5.

Again, we expect India to chase anything. They look utterly unruffled by England's attack which, as Ravi Shastri pointed out in game two, would be good only for English conditions. 

India are at 1.501/2, which is no surprise. There''s no wisdom in saying that value so we need to look elsewhere for their dominance to pay. Their runs in the first ten overs fits the bill. Sportsbook go over 60.5. at 5/61.84. That would have been a winner in eight of their last ten innings (including one at this venue) and they average 70 in that period. 

India v England Third ODI player bets

Ben Duckett was pipped by Joe Root in Cuttack for top bat as England's best win-rate player in the top seven was usurped by th worst. We switch horses to Harry Brook, who showed commendable patience in trying to dig out a score. He wasn't overly aggressive and seems to have learned that crease occupation is the way forward. He wins at 21% in two years so is worth a follow at 9/25.50. 

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