India v England Fourth Test Player Tips: Don't rule out market upsets

• Bairstow the wrong price at 15/28.50

• Batting could be tricky

• All-round Stokes

India v England
Friday 23 February, 04.00
TV: Live on TNT

India v England Fourth Test runs bets

This is a test in every sense of the word. We should only ever bet on what we know to be true. But good luck working out what is fact or fiction pre-toss for this one.

The Ranchi pitch, according to Ollie Pope and Ben Stokes, has cracks on a length for both left- and right-handed batsmen. Jasprit Bumrah has been rested.

Everything points to an absolute terror track. When reading Stokes's comments that he's "never seen a pitch like it" we immediately consider appropriate wagers.

No century in the match at 13/27.50 is a first port of call with Sportsbook. While we are nervous about buys on innings runs. Before the pitch news, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett and Ollie Pope were possible options.

But now we're looking at high lines to short. Rohit Sharma's under 33.5 first-innings runs quote at 5/61.84 for example.

Alternatively, spinners like Ravi Jadeja and Tom Hartley are possible buys on first-innings wickets. Sportsbook go over 2.5 wickets at 11/102.11 for the former and at 6/42.50 for the latter

These are not, however, what are called known knowns. These are speculative options which make you feel like a marvel if they come off. And something else beginning with m if they don't.

When the match is underway we will be able to form an opinion on what is going to happen. And if the track is as bad (or dangerous by the sounds of it) as England have made out, shorting every man that comes to the crease and getting unders on the runs (as discussed in the match preview) is the way to go.

Top England first-innings runscorer

One of the few things we do know is that Jonny Bairstow is, would you believe, underrated for top England runscorer in the first-innings at 15/28.50. It's a big drift from 6/17.00.

Bairstow has a win rate on this market in the last two years at 17.65%. Sportsbook rate him at 11.8%.

If you've been listening to 'the noise', then you'd have heard that Bairstow is out of form and should have been dropped. Maybe he is. Maybe he should have.

We're not sure that the former, at least, is right. He's had a couple of starts in this series and there aren't glaring signs that he's out of whack technically.

We will keep stakes sensible. And if Pope and Stokes are right about the pitch he might not need more than 30-odd to win it.

To that end, more extreme options are Ben Foakes at 14s and Tom Hartley at 40s.

Top India first-innings runscorer/wicket-taker

For India we don't have strong fancies based on win rate because, simply, there are no wrong prices by that rationale.

Rohit, who has a double on this test, is 3/14.00 for top India first-innings bat. Yas Jaiswal is the same price and we're still waiting for a big enough study period to make a judgement on his pricing.

So we're left with more speculation. Axar Patel at 16/117.00 and Ravi Ashwin at 33/134.00 could be decent options.

As for the ball, Kuldep Yadav bowled like a genius without reward in game three. With no Bumrah the market looks wide open and the 3/14.00 that he cops will have appeal.

Read Ed's Fourth test match preview here.

Cricket... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now...