Australia v India WTC Day Five In-play Tips: Kohli to make Aussies sweat

Virat Kohli
Kohli was in classy form

Ed Hawkins has the latest odds and stats ahead of a potentially enthralling final day at The Oval on Sunday

Australia v India
Sunday 11 June, 10:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Back-to-lay the draw

It only took four days but perhaps, finally, the match odds market is about right. India need 280 more runs. Australia need seven wickets. Australia are 1.454/9 with India 5.609/2 and the draw 7.206/1.

After a strong India start to an improbable chase of 444, the expected 'panic' in the markets was present with the Aussies drifting with every boundary. But from 91 for one to 93 for three, as you would expect, Australia price's collapsed.

And it is a long climb back. The 1.454/9, despite a 71-run partnership, has risen ponderously from about 1.3030/100.

The wicket looked much easier for batting post tea. There was one that reared off a length off the pacers and one from Nathan Lyon that spat. Other than that it was easy paced.

And yet on day one when conditions appeared to be the most challenging with overcast conditions and the ball hooping, we saw the most runs scored in the match. Maybe day five could be harder still.

It is fair to reckon that Australia missed their lines. Pat Cummins and Scott Boland were too straight and were unable to build pressure, releasing the valve with one loose delivery per over. They have to be much tighter.

At some point - with 40 overs to go before the new ball - Australia may have to bowl dry. That could provide a trading option although we need to watch carefully.

Just before the close the Aussies reckoned they were getting some reverse swing. It will be interesting to see if it is in evidence again on the fifth morning. Look for the Australia pacers hiding the ball in their run up.

If not, then Australia have to find a way to get the run rate down. And it is at this point that the draw price could start to shift. This could be the big mover of the day and a back-to-lay to around 4.2016/5 seems on. It really won't take much to start getting that price down.

The weather forecast remains good. The expected rain on Saturday didn't materialise from earlier forecasts and we'd be surprised if the predicted shower late afternoon turned up. Regardless, a sixth day is available for overs lost to rain.

Back over V Kohli 77.5 runs

They key wicket is Virat Kohli. He looked in sensational form, though, and he had the air of a man who reckoned that he was about to produce something epic.

Kohli looked so relaxed at the crease. He was laughing and joking, instead of snarling and spatting. When he is so loose and carefree he is at his most dangerous.

Betfair Sportsbook offer 10/11 that he goes on from his overnight not out score of 44 to bust 77.5. That looks a solid bet if he can turn up refreshed and as relaxed.

Back V Kohli over 77.5 runs

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