India v Australia Champions Trophy Tips: Aussies can pull off a shock?

India v Australia 
Tuesday 4 March, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

India v Australia Champions Trophy team news

India appeared to get a sweat on in their final group match against New Zealand. But did they really? Batting first they posted 249, recovering from an early and mid-innings wobble. They won comfortably, bowling out their opponents for 203. They know this pitch inside out.

On an ageing surface the result rarely seemed in doubt with New Zealand behind the rate against an army of spin. Varun Chakravarthy claimed five wickets. India picked four specialist spinners and there are still some people who don't believe that they have had a massive advantage being guaranteed all their games in Dubai. If they are nervous about extra batters needed they could swap out Kuldeep Yadav for spin all-rounder Washington Sundar.

Probable XI: Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Shreyas, Axar, Rahul, Hardik, Jadeja, Shami, Kuldeep, Chakravarthy

Australia have lost opener Matt Short to injury. His replacement, Cooper Connolly, has been approved and it may be a race against time to get him into the XI. Connolly's part-time spin could be crucial. Otherwise Jake Fraser-McGurk probably plays.

They must be seriously consdeiring finding room for specialist spinnner Tanveer Sangha alongside Adam Zampa. Otherwise Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne and Glenn Maxwell must prepare for work in the field. They could find room for Sangha by leaving out one of Bdwarshuis or Nathan Ellis.

Probable XI:  Head, Fraser-McGurk, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Carey, Maxwell, Dwarshuis, Zampa, Johnson, Sangha

India v Australia Champions Trophy pitch report

As stated consistently throughout the tournament the Dubai square is tired, having had an enormous amount of cricket played on it on the preceding months. It is not a huge square so pitches haven't had time to rest. Another tired surface is expected and a total of 230 should be more than competitive batting first. India's par line was set at 290s for the Kiwi clash and it could be that we get the opportunity to short runs with markets often slow to react. A line of around 280 for India is possible while selling Australia at the 270 region is possible. This is going to be attritional, no frills cricket.

India v Australia Champions Trophy match prediction

India are 1.618/13 favourites with Australia 2.6213/8. That's a big gulf in odds for a match which could well be toss dependant. India would not want to be chasing despite two successes doing so against Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The question one has to answer is whether the Aussies can battle and scrap against india's spinners to a total of 230 or more. If so then they are bang in the game. The good news is that there is no team which fights harder. The problem is they were hopeless on turning wickets against Sri Lanka in their warm-up and could well be rolled. 

If they do bat second and restrict India to something around 220-260, then the 'hosts' become the value in-play at inflated odds. 

India v Australia Champions Trophy player bets

Ravi Jadeja had a win rate of 23% before the Kiwi game on top India bowler. He took one wicket as he was outbowled by Varun. But that's okay. We backed him at sixes and saw no reason why we shouldn't go in again at 5/16.00. The surface suits him perfectly. We keep faith with Zampa for top Australia bowler as he is well overdue. He is 13/53.60. It has to be said that the Aussie part-timers, such as Maxwell at 7s, are value, though. They could well steal a win on runs conceded in a tie on wickets.

Frustratingly, the weather denied us a top-bat win on Travis Head in the washout against Afghanistan. He will be well-backed again at 7/24.50 considering he is India's nemsesis in all formats, notably the World Cup win. KL Rahul, who top-scored in that World Cup final for India, may suit at 7/18.00. This pitch fits his style.

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!