England v South Africa Champions Trophy Tips: More misery for England

England v South Africa Superboost

England's two defeats so far means they will not make the knockout stages of the Champions Trophy and are playing only for pride against South African on Saturday. You can find out below whether Ed thinks they can salvage something from the match. But first check out this Betfair Sportsbook superboost for the game.

Betfair have boosted the odds on Ben Duckett and Joe Root to hit eight or more combined boundaries against South Africa from 4/61.67 to 1/12.00. They Hit 16 between them in England's last match so there is a decent chance that the bet will land at boosted odds.

England v South Africa
Saturday 29 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v South Africa Champions Trophy team news

England are out after a predictably average performance against Afghanistan. The hand-wringing in England post-trauma is a surprise. Does no-one look at form anymore? The team with the second-lowest win percentage in the last two years and the worst economy rate are going to finish where they deserve to finish.

What is in doubt for this fixture is whether they show any sign of learning on the job. Do they recognise the need for more variety in their attack? If so Rehan Ahmed comes in for the injured Mark Wood. If not, Saqib Mahmood plays. Tom Banton should also replace Phil Salt in the opening slot.

There may be an injury doubt surrounding Liam Livingstone. In which case both Sadiq and Rehan should play as bowling resources would be stretched to the limit.

Probable XI: Duckett, Banton, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Livingstone, J Overton, Rehan/Mahmood, Archer, Rashid

South Africa wouldn't have been entirely perturbed by the washout against Australia as it has afforded them extra time to get Heinrich Klaasen fit. Klaasen wasn't risked against Afghanistan but in what is an important game one would expect him to be in the line-up.

South Africa are assured of qualification even if they lose. Afghanistan, if they beat Australia, could pip them to top spot but they have such a vastly superior run rate to the Aussies they cannot be usurped from the top two.

They must also consider variety in their attack. Continuing with a pace-heavy approach wouldn't be wise and Tabraiz Shamsi for Wiaan Mulder makes sense. Alternatively, both play and Tony de Zorzi and Lungi Ngidi lose their spots.

Probable XI:  Rickleton, Bauma, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Mulder, Maharaj, Rabada, Shamsi

Get more Champions Trophy tips in this week's Cricket...Only Bettor podcast

England v South Africa Champions Trophy pitch report

First-innings scores of 320 and 315 in Karachi and wins for both teams batting first suggest a surface which isn't as flat as Lahore. There should be more grip for the spinners here and the team defending has the opportunity to put on a squeeze.

Six of the last ten day-nighters have been won by the team defending. The first-innings average run rate is 5.9. Given England's consistent profligacy with the ball and South Africa's power hitting we would expect the Saffers to easily breach 300. No rain is forecast.

England v South Africa Champions Trophy match prediction

South Africa are 1.875/6 favourites with England 2.1411/10. The latter is a very poor price about a demoralised, chaotic team which has now lost their last six and just three in their last 13.

But we do need to be careful to not make the assumption that South Africa are world beaters. Yes, they were impressive in defeating Afghanistan but that snapped a six-game losing streak and their record is very similar to England: four wins in their last 12.

What South Africa do have is better balance. They have five genuine bowling options and can ask Aiden Markram to bowl extra spin if required. There is also a sense - and only a sense - that they know what they are doing.

England have proved time and time again that they have no plans other than to be gung-ho. Jos Buttler is almost certainly captaining for the final time and a listless, low-confidence performance is expected. Joe Root apart. 

Due to the similar form guides it may be wise to keep the burgeoning toss bias on side. South Africa batting first is the bet with England having lost eight of their last 12 chasing.

England v South Africa Champions Trophy player bets

Klaasen is 7/24.50 for top South Africa bat and he has a win rate of 32% in the last two years. There is nothing wrong with that wager. He is 6/42.50 for a fifty. That may be preferable as on a wicket which could be easier first up, milestone wagering takes others out of the equation. For England, Banton looks toppy at 5/16.00 considering he could well open the batting. 

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